***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2018.-27.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 28.4 33.1 48.6 109.6 63.8 58.9 17.8 25.4 34.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 29.4 35.1 43.0 113.0 65.7 60.8 16.3 24.9 35.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 38.4 42.9 46.8 107.0 62.0 57.3 24.8 34.7 46.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 40.8 45.1 53.7 107.7 62.4 57.3 28.1 37.3 47.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 38.2 42.0 54.0 107.2 62.0 56.8 26.4 34.9 44.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 32.7 35.1 50.0 106.7 61.6 55.6 19.8 28.3 38.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 35.9 35.5 43.7 117.5 68.3 62.6 16.4 24.4 33.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 51.2 61.6 61.7 115.8 68.2 60.7 34.1 46.1 59.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 30.5 34.0 54.8 108.0 62.7 57.5 20.6 27.7 35.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 36.3 43.1 60.0 112.5 66.1 60.0 23.8 32.7 43.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 33.6 37.1 53.7 108.6 63.1 57.4 22.6 30.4 38.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 34.8 39.3 53.3 109.8 63.9 57.0 21.0 30.0 40.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 36.0 40.2 55.7 109.6 64.0 57.9 23.3 31.9 41.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 51.1 56.4 58.2 108.8 63.2 56.9 38.2 48.0 58.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 34.8 35.2 46.3 100.6 57.7 51.9 19.3 29.6 42.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 32.2 35.5 52.3 107.9 62.6 57.0 20.8 28.7 37.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 36.7 36.1 43.5 120.0 69.6 63.9 16.1 24.1 33.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 35.2 43.7 65.1 116.8 69.0 62.4 23.3 31.8 41.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 33.6 37.5 43.2 108.9 63.3 58.7 21.0 29.6 39.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 39.5 53.9 86.1 124.8 73.4 64.3 25.4 35.5 47.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 35.1 38.4 51.6 106.7 61.7 57.3 23.8 32.0 41.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 31.1 37.0 43.4 112.2 65.2 60.2 18.8 27.3 37.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 32.3 35.0 45.7 106.0 61.3 56.5 20.5 28.6 38.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 42.3 47.8 57.0 111.4 65.2 59.1 31.9 39.8 48.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 36.3 42.8 56.6 111.1 64.8 60.0 23.9 33.0 43.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 29.5 33.3 53.5 110.4 64.5 58.0 16.8 24.8 34.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 32.1 38.7 52.3 111.9 65.3 60.2 20.3 29.0 39.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 30.6 31.9 47.5 102.1 58.5 53.0 18.6 27.0 36.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 56.4 72.0 71.9 120.6 71.3 63.7 38.6 51.4 66.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 29.9 34.8 43.7 110.7 64.4 59.6 17.8 26.1 35.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------