***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.01.2018.-07.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 0.7 2.1 2.0 4.6 85.6 85.0 -4.6 -2.7 -0.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 0.2 1.5 1.6 4.3 85.9 85.0 -4.7 -2.9 -1.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 1 99 100 2.0 3.1 1.9 4.3 85.0 84.4 -2.7 -1.0 0.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 1 99 100 -2.3 -0.4 -0.3 4.4 87.8 87.0 -8.1 -6.0 -4.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 -0.2 1.1 0.6 4.6 85.9 85.4 -5.1 -3.3 -1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 7 93 100 -1.1 0.0 -2.5 4.0 83.3 82.5 -5.9 -4.1 -2.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 0.2 1.6 1.8 4.5 86.4 85.5 -4.6 -2.8 -1.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 8 92 100 -4.8 -3.8 -2.0 4.1 83.2 82.0 -9.3 -7.6 -5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 0.8 1.5 -0.1 4.0 82.6 82.0 -4.6 -2.6 -0.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 4 96 100 -0.7 0.2 -1.3 4.2 83.9 82.9 -5.0 -3.4 -1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 -0.3 0.6 -0.3 4.4 83.6 83.0 -5.4 -3.5 -1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 -1.0 0.1 -0.9 4.4 83.5 82.6 -6.2 -4.3 -2.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 -0.4 0.5 -1.2 4.2 82.5 81.7 -5.7 -3.7 -1.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 3 97 100 0.4 1.3 -0.1 4.3 84.0 83.2 -4.0 -2.4 -0.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 0.4 1.5 0.4 3.6 84.2 83.4 -4.9 -3.0 -1.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 0.2 1.0 -0.8 4.4 83.4 82.8 -4.4 -2.7 -1.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 1 99 100 -0.2 1.3 1.8 4.7 87.6 86.7 -4.9 -3.2 -1.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 4 96 100 -2.3 -1.0 -1.5 4.4 85.1 84.0 -7.3 -5.4 -3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 3 97 100 0.2 1.3 1.3 4.1 84.7 83.8 -4.7 -2.9 -1.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 6 94 100 -4.2 -2.6 -2.7 4.4 84.7 83.0 -10.3 -8.0 -5.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 0.8 2.0 1.5 4.4 84.7 84.1 -4.7 -2.7 -0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 -0.1 1.3 1.8 4.5 86.9 86.0 -4.8 -3.1 -1.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 -0.2 0.5 0.8 3.8 82.5 81.8 -4.8 -3.1 -1.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 4 96 100 -0.3 0.6 -0.1 4.1 84.0 83.2 -4.8 -3.1 -1.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 1 99 100 0.1 1.3 1.6 4.7 85.8 85.3 -4.5 -2.8 -1.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 -0.8 -0.1 -1.6 3.8 81.1 80.1 -5.5 -3.7 -2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 1.3 2.8 2.0 4.9 86.0 85.3 -4.4 -2.3 -0.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 3 97 100 -0.7 0.9 0.0 4.3 86.4 85.5 -6.0 -4.0 -2.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 7 93 100 -2.0 -0.8 -2.6 4.4 84.2 82.8 -7.1 -5.2 -3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 0.7 2.0 1.7 4.3 85.2 84.4 -4.5 -2.6 -0.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------