***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.01.2018.-14.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 0.4 0.9 0.2 3.2 75.2 72.3 -3.8 -1.9 -0.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 2.6 71.3 68.7 -5.7 -3.4 -1.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 1.2 1.8 0.0 2.9 74.1 70.9 -3.2 -1.2 0.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 -3.1 -2.5 -2.5 3.0 75.5 72.8 -7.9 -5.8 -3.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 -1.3 -0.6 -1.7 3.3 76.0 72.8 -5.5 -3.6 -1.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 -2.4 -1.6 -3.8 3.6 78.1 74.9 -6.9 -5.0 -3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 2.7 71.8 69.1 -5.4 -3.1 -1.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 -5.4 -4.9 -3.8 3.1 75.3 71.5 -9.0 -7.4 -5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 -0.1 0.6 -1.7 3.3 76.6 73.5 -5.1 -2.9 -0.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 -1.1 -0.5 -3.2 3.1 75.6 72.1 -5.7 -3.7 -1.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 -1.3 -0.5 -2.2 3.5 77.0 73.7 -6.0 -3.9 -2.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 -2.3 -1.6 -2.7 3.6 77.2 73.4 -6.8 -4.9 -3.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 -1.8 -1.0 -2.9 3.6 77.3 73.6 -6.8 -4.6 -2.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 -0.1 0.1 -2.4 2.6 71.7 68.8 -4.7 -2.6 -0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 -0.8 -0.1 -1.2 3.2 77.9 75.3 -5.3 -3.4 -1.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 -0.7 -0.1 -2.7 3.6 77.2 73.9 -5.1 -3.2 -1.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 -0.9 -1.1 -0.7 2.2 68.3 66.0 -5.7 -3.5 -1.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 -3.1 -2.6 -3.8 2.9 73.4 70.1 -7.8 -5.7 -3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 -0.6 -0.2 -0.5 2.6 72.0 69.1 -5.3 -3.1 -1.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 -6.0 -5.5 -4.8 2.9 73.3 69.3 -11.3 -8.9 -6.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 -0.7 -0.2 -0.5 3.2 75.4 72.4 -5.1 -3.2 -1.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 -1.2 -1.3 -0.8 2.1 67.9 65.6 -5.8 -3.6 -1.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 -0.6 -0.3 -0.7 2.7 73.3 70.2 -5.4 -3.3 -1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 -1.0 -0.5 -2.3 2.9 73.8 70.6 -5.1 -3.2 -1.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 -0.6 0.1 -0.6 3.3 75.9 72.9 -5.3 -3.2 -1.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 -1.7 -1.0 -3.0 3.5 77.0 73.3 -6.0 -4.2 -2.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 0.2 0.9 -0.1 3.4 75.5 72.5 -5.3 -2.9 -0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 -2.2 -1.6 -2.2 3.1 75.7 73.1 -6.6 -4.6 -2.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 -2.8 -2.3 -4.5 3.0 74.0 70.5 -7.4 -5.3 -3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 2.8 72.9 70.0 -5.4 -3.1 -0.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------