***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.01.2018.-21.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 -0.8 -0.6 -0.9 2.7 70.4 68.0 -3.4 -2.1 -1.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 -1.4 -1.3 -1.1 2.6 69.1 67.2 -5.0 -3.3 -1.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 0.3 0.4 -1.3 2.4 69.0 67.1 -2.3 -1.1 0.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 -4.3 -4.0 -4.1 2.7 71.2 69.2 -7.9 -6.2 -4.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 -1.8 -1.6 -3.7 2.6 70.2 68.3 -4.6 -3.2 -2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 -2.7 -2.6 -5.8 2.4 69.7 67.3 -5.2 -4.0 -2.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 -1.4 -1.3 -0.9 2.7 69.3 67.2 -5.1 -3.4 -1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 -5.7 -5.9 -5.6 2.0 66.5 64.4 -8.7 -7.3 -6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 -0.8 -0.8 -3.2 2.5 69.5 67.7 -3.8 -2.4 -1.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 -1.5 -1.6 -4.8 2.2 67.5 65.5 -4.4 -3.1 -1.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 -1.5 -1.5 -4.5 2.5 69.7 67.6 -4.8 -3.3 -1.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 -2.4 -2.5 -5.0 2.4 68.6 66.5 -5.7 -4.2 -2.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 -2.1 -2.1 -5.3 2.3 68.0 66.0 -5.2 -3.7 -2.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 -0.8 -0.9 -3.5 2.1 66.7 64.8 -3.6 -2.3 -1.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 -1.1 -0.8 -2.9 2.6 71.7 69.6 -4.3 -2.8 -1.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 -1.1 -1.1 -4.9 2.5 69.9 68.0 -3.9 -2.6 -1.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 -1.8 -1.7 -0.9 2.6 68.7 66.8 -5.2 -3.5 -2.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 -3.3 -3.6 -5.5 2.0 66.5 64.6 -6.8 -5.1 -3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 -1.3 -1.3 -1.4 2.4 68.6 66.9 -4.5 -3.0 -1.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 -6.1 -6.6 -6.7 1.7 64.2 61.8 -10.1 -8.2 -6.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 -1.1 -1.1 -2.0 2.5 69.2 67.3 -4.1 -2.7 -1.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 -1.8 -1.7 -1.3 2.4 68.3 66.6 -5.0 -3.4 -2.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 -1.5 -1.5 -1.8 2.2 67.6 66.0 -4.4 -3.0 -1.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 -1.6 -1.8 -3.9 2.1 67.2 65.5 -4.5 -3.1 -1.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 -1.3 -1.0 -2.3 2.7 71.4 69.1 -3.7 -2.5 -1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 -2.1 -2.1 -5.4 2.3 68.1 65.9 -4.9 -3.5 -2.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 -1.1 -0.8 -1.3 2.8 70.9 68.6 -4.3 -2.8 -1.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 -2.2 -2.1 -4.0 2.6 70.7 68.7 -5.3 -3.8 -2.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 -3.6 -3.9 -5.9 1.9 65.8 63.5 -6.6 -5.2 -3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 -1.1 -1.0 -1.1 2.6 69.4 67.5 -4.7 -2.9 -1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------