***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.01.2018.-07.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 7.5 9.5 7.9 4.5 87.8 86.4 1.6 3.8 5.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 6.8 8.4 7.9 4.3 86.8 85.5 1.5 3.5 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 8.9 11.0 8.5 4.6 87.4 85.7 2.6 5.0 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 4.7 7.5 5.4 4.6 89.6 87.4 -1.9 0.5 2.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 8.2 10.4 6.7 4.5 88.6 86.9 2.4 4.5 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 7.6 9.0 4.9 3.9 84.7 82.6 2.1 4.1 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 6.5 8.1 7.6 4.2 86.7 85.5 1.2 3.2 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 1.2 2.2 5.2 3.5 82.8 80.5 -2.9 -1.3 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 9.3 11.5 7.5 4.4 88.0 86.4 3.2 5.4 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 7.5 9.0 6.4 4.1 85.6 83.3 2.4 4.4 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 3 97 100 8.4 10.3 7.1 4.4 87.1 85.3 2.5 4.7 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 7 93 100 9.0 10.6 5.8 3.8 84.7 82.6 2.8 5.2 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 13 87 100 7.8 9.1 6.3 3.7 82.5 80.6 2.3 4.5 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 7 93 100 9.4 11.5 8.4 4.6 86.4 84.2 3.1 5.5 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 7.8 10.5 7.1 4.6 90.6 88.5 1.8 4.0 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 8.9 10.5 6.2 4.1 85.3 83.6 2.7 5.0 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 6.3 7.9 7.5 4.3 87.3 86.0 1.2 3.0 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 11 89 100 5.2 6.5 6.0 4.0 85.0 82.5 1.0 2.6 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 7.8 9.5 8.0 4.4 86.6 85.1 1.8 4.0 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 17 83 100 4.7 5.7 3.9 3.2 80.1 78.0 -0.7 1.5 3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 2 98 100 8.8 11.1 8.3 4.6 88.6 86.9 2.8 5.0 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 2 98 100 7.4 9.1 7.8 4.2 86.8 85.5 1.7 3.8 5.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 7.3 8.9 8.2 4.4 86.4 84.9 1.7 3.8 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 8 92 100 9.7 11.7 8.0 4.4 86.3 84.0 3.6 5.9 8.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 2 98 100 6.9 9.1 7.2 4.7 89.2 87.5 1.7 3.6 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 6.3 6.9 4.3 2.8 78.3 76.4 2.3 4.0 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 2 98 100 8.5 10.5 7.5 4.4 87.8 86.4 2.5 4.7 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 3 97 100 8.7 11.2 6.3 4.5 89.0 86.8 2.3 4.7 6.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 5.4 6.9 5.2 3.6 82.8 80.4 0.0 2.2 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 6.9 8.5 7.9 4.3 86.7 85.3 1.4 3.4 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------