***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.01.2018.-14.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 6.9 7.2 5.9 2.6 71.3 68.9 2.2 4.4 6.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 5.8 5.6 5.7 2.2 67.8 65.9 0.7 3.1 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 7.1 7.1 6.2 2.3 68.7 66.5 2.0 4.4 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 2.8 3.2 3.4 2.5 71.8 68.3 -1.4 0.6 2.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 6.6 7.1 4.7 2.6 72.4 69.1 1.9 4.1 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 6.2 6.3 3.8 2.5 72.0 68.5 1.6 3.6 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 5.3 5.3 5.6 2.3 68.7 66.7 0.4 2.7 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 1.8 1.7 3.7 2.0 68.2 65.9 -1.8 -0.1 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 7.9 8.1 5.4 2.4 71.1 68.2 2.5 4.9 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 6.5 6.5 4.5 2.1 68.8 66.2 1.8 4.0 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 6.9 7.3 5.0 2.6 72.4 69.1 2.0 4.3 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 7.4 7.4 4.3 2.3 70.8 67.8 2.3 4.5 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 6.9 7.1 4.7 2.6 72.5 69.0 1.7 4.0 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 7.5 7.0 5.5 1.8 64.8 62.9 2.1 4.8 7.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 6.9 7.3 4.6 2.6 72.6 69.2 1.6 4.0 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 7.5 7.9 4.6 2.7 73.1 69.5 2.4 4.7 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 5.0 4.7 5.2 1.8 65.7 63.8 0.4 2.6 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 4.1 3.9 4.2 1.9 66.9 64.8 0.4 2.1 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 6.2 6.1 5.8 2.2 67.9 65.9 1.0 3.5 5.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 2.9 2.7 2.6 1.8 66.4 64.5 -0.9 0.9 2.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 7.1 7.3 6.0 2.3 69.9 67.3 2.2 4.5 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 5.7 5.2 5.4 1.7 64.6 62.8 0.8 3.1 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 5.9 5.8 6.1 2.3 68.2 66.0 0.9 3.2 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 8.3 7.9 5.5 2.0 66.6 64.5 3.0 5.5 7.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 5.9 6.4 5.0 2.7 72.3 69.4 1.3 3.5 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 6.6 6.7 3.8 2.4 73.1 69.7 2.2 4.0 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 7.0 7.4 5.6 2.7 72.1 69.5 2.0 4.4 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 7.6 7.8 4.0 2.4 70.9 67.4 2.2 4.7 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 4.5 4.3 3.6 1.9 67.0 65.1 0.2 2.2 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 5.7 5.7 5.8 2.4 69.1 67.1 0.7 3.0 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------