***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.01.2018.-07.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 7.4 7.5 11.2 87.2 56.5 52.2 3.0 5.9 10.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 7.0 9.4 12.1 108.3 65.6 58.8 3.1 5.8 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 10.8 10.7 11.2 86.5 55.8 51.7 4.5 8.8 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.6 7.4 9.4 61.9 42.0 38.2 5.6 9.2 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 11.4 9.3 11.7 77.7 50.0 45.6 5.4 9.3 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.8 7.1 9.6 71.8 46.9 41.6 4.7 7.8 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 7.9 11.0 12.2 115.4 68.0 60.5 3.6 6.5 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 15.1 14.1 13.5 86.5 54.3 49.2 7.5 12.6 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 9.4 7.8 11.1 79.2 50.4 46.2 4.5 7.7 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 10.4 9.0 13.6 84.6 52.8 48.1 4.4 8.2 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 10.4 8.3 11.5 77.5 49.6 44.6 5.0 8.4 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 10.7 8.7 11.1 80.0 51.2 46.8 4.2 8.4 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.7 9.0 12.5 78.8 49.7 45.1 5.2 9.1 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 12.9 16.1 17.0 106.2 63.9 58.6 6.2 10.9 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.6 4.6 6.5 47.7 40.6 35.9 3.2 6.7 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 10.0 7.8 11.1 75.9 49.4 44.5 4.5 7.9 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 10.5 11.2 12.9 126.1 71.5 63.7 3.2 5.9 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 8.7 9.2 15.7 94.9 58.2 53.0 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 8.1 10.0 12.1 102.5 63.4 57.3 4.0 6.9 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 10.9 12.7 19.1 103.1 62.1 55.9 4.5 8.6 14.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 10.0 9.2 11.3 81.7 52.6 48.6 4.8 8.4 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 10.0 10.7 14.3 127.2 71.7 64.4 2.8 5.4 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 8.6 10.0 12.5 98.2 61.3 56.0 4.2 7.3 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 10.8 11.5 14.0 93.7 58.2 53.2 4.9 9.0 14.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 10.3 9.1 12.3 81.0 52.5 48.8 4.5 8.4 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.0 7.2 10.5 75.8 48.5 43.9 4.0 7.5 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 9.0 9.0 11.9 87.7 56.5 52.1 3.9 7.3 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 3.8 5.2 7.8 56.6 41.3 36.6 3.7 7.0 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 14.0 16.7 17.6 104.4 62.5 56.2 5.8 11.2 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 7.9 9.4 11.7 101.2 62.8 56.5 3.6 6.5 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------