***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.01.2018.-14.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 1.5 5.2 12.3 113.8 67.5 54.0 1.4 2.8 4.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 8.3 8.0 10.9 120.6 70.2 57.2 2.0 4.0 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 2.4 7.0 12.3 117.8 68.9 55.9 2.2 4.0 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 6.9 7.0 14.3 124.8 71.1 58.1 2.3 3.9 6.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.6 7.2 12.9 110.6 66.5 54.6 2.3 4.3 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 5.1 6.5 12.3 109.3 65.7 54.0 1.8 3.7 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 1.9 7.3 10.6 119.6 69.9 56.0 1.7 3.6 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 6.2 7.5 13.6 106.4 64.5 53.6 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 4.0 5.1 13.0 106.9 65.0 54.2 1.6 3.1 5.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 5.5 7.1 13.5 108.2 65.4 54.4 2.1 4.2 7.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 4.6 6.0 13.3 111.3 66.5 55.6 1.6 3.3 5.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.0 6.1 12.5 106.0 64.2 52.9 1.8 3.6 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.1 6.4 13.1 108.8 65.9 53.5 1.8 3.7 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 7.4 9.5 14.5 111.2 66.4 54.8 3.0 5.7 9.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 7.4 7.9 14.0 132.0 73.4 58.4 2.1 3.8 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 5.2 6.4 13.0 110.9 66.5 54.1 2.1 3.9 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 8.1 8.1 11.1 123.1 71.0 57.6 2.1 4.1 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 5.5 6.4 13.6 102.9 63.1 52.7 2.4 4.4 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 8.1 8.0 11.5 122.0 70.5 57.4 2.3 4.2 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.5 8.1 18.1 108.7 65.7 56.2 2.1 4.6 8.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 4.8 6.3 12.7 109.6 66.0 54.3 1.8 3.6 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.5 8.4 11.5 119.0 69.7 55.8 2.3 4.4 7.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 7.0 7.1 12.8 124.1 70.9 57.8 1.5 3.2 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 5.2 6.6 13.3 108.2 65.1 53.8 2.1 4.0 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 2.1 6.6 14.0 113.8 67.7 55.3 1.9 3.6 6.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 4.9 5.7 12.6 106.2 64.5 53.0 2.1 3.8 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 1.8 5.9 12.9 113.4 67.5 54.8 1.7 3.3 5.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 6.4 6.5 13.3 123.5 70.9 57.4 2.0 3.6 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 7.9 9.0 14.9 102.6 62.9 53.2 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 7.3 6.9 11.0 118.2 69.4 55.8 1.6 3.4 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------