***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.01.2018.-21.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 2.3 6.9 10.1 99.6 63.1 47.8 2.2 4.4 7.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 2.2 7.0 9.4 107.0 66.3 49.2 1.9 4.0 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 2.7 8.9 9.9 102.3 64.1 48.9 2.4 5.2 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 4.2 11.6 10.3 94.1 61.3 46.2 4.1 8.0 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 2.7 8.4 10.6 98.0 62.2 47.4 2.5 5.3 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 2.4 5.2 9.0 83.5 56.0 45.3 2.2 4.2 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.0 5.5 9.2 107.1 66.3 48.4 1.8 3.4 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 5.0 12.4 10.8 91.8 59.4 47.2 4.5 9.0 15.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 2.7 7.3 11.5 100.7 63.0 48.8 2.6 4.9 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 2.8 8.0 11.7 99.0 62.2 49.2 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 2.2 6.7 10.2 97.6 62.0 47.9 2.1 4.4 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 2.7 6.1 9.5 89.4 58.5 46.1 2.6 4.7 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.7 6.1 10.2 90.2 58.9 47.3 2.5 4.7 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 3.9 12.1 13.3 110.3 66.7 52.1 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.5 8.1 10.1 94.9 62.8 45.6 2.4 5.1 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.0 5.8 10.0 94.5 60.8 47.2 1.8 3.8 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 2.1 5.8 9.3 108.4 66.8 48.4 2.0 3.6 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 3.4 9.2 12.8 102.2 63.4 49.9 3.2 6.0 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 2.4 8.1 9.5 106.0 65.7 49.5 2.0 4.5 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 2.9 7.7 15.1 96.1 61.4 48.8 2.7 5.3 8.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 2.3 7.6 10.9 101.8 63.5 48.2 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.8 8.2 9.6 106.3 66.0 49.0 2.5 4.9 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 2.6 8.4 10.0 105.1 65.0 49.7 2.3 4.9 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 3.1 10.2 11.9 107.0 65.4 50.5 2.9 6.0 10.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 2.6 7.7 11.4 98.9 62.8 47.1 2.6 5.0 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 2.1 3.7 8.2 75.9 53.1 43.1 2.0 3.4 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 2.3 7.0 10.9 101.1 63.8 48.2 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.3 6.9 9.6 92.5 61.0 45.3 2.1 4.6 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 4.4 13.6 14.0 103.0 63.7 50.4 4.0 8.3 14.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 1.9 6.4 9.4 104.3 65.3 48.9 1.6 3.6 6.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------