***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.01.2018.-28.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 18.4 26.1 40.9 90.9 49.1 44.5 18.4 26.6 36.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 29.6 29.0 38.5 98.9 56.4 51.9 16.9 25.2 35.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 40.2 36.3 41.1 93.8 51.7 46.5 25.0 35.1 47.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 25.9 34.0 43.1 86.9 45.2 41.3 27.4 36.7 47.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 24.8 33.7 44.7 90.5 47.4 43.1 25.8 35.3 46.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 18.7 24.1 38.8 82.7 40.3 38.9 20.5 29.1 39.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 29.0 28.8 38.4 101.3 58.1 52.8 16.9 24.6 33.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 31.7 43.5 47.9 89.8 46.4 43.3 33.8 46.2 60.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 19.8 27.4 45.6 91.4 48.2 43.3 20.2 28.2 37.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 22.8 32.4 49.4 92.7 48.8 44.7 23.3 33.1 44.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 20.6 29.0 44.0 90.6 47.1 43.7 22.2 30.6 40.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 18.8 26.9 41.9 87.2 44.1 41.7 20.9 30.4 41.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 22.0 28.8 44.4 86.3 43.0 41.1 23.8 32.7 42.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 52.5 52.0 55.5 101.7 57.5 51.1 36.9 47.1 58.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 18.0 26.6 39.3 84.8 46.3 41.0 18.7 29.0 41.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 19.4 26.7 42.6 88.4 45.5 42.7 20.8 29.2 38.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 27.9 29.4 39.3 104.7 60.6 55.8 16.4 23.9 32.8 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 21.3 32.2 53.5 95.6 51.4 46.4 22.1 31.4 42.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 33.3 32.9 39.7 98.2 55.8 51.3 21.4 29.7 39.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 22.8 35.7 66.0 95.7 52.2 47.2 23.1 34.0 47.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 23.4 31.7 43.9 92.0 49.3 43.9 23.5 32.0 41.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 30.7 33.0 41.9 104.2 60.2 56.3 18.8 27.1 36.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 32.6 32.3 43.0 99.2 56.1 51.0 20.4 28.8 38.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 30.5 41.4 49.4 97.0 53.2 47.3 30.9 39.7 49.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 23.9 31.9 46.3 89.3 47.1 42.4 24.1 33.6 44.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 14.5 18.3 38.5 79.4 36.9 36.3 16.7 24.9 34.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 20.7 28.8 43.3 90.9 48.9 44.3 20.7 29.4 39.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 17.5 24.2 39.4 85.3 44.8 41.0 18.0 27.1 37.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 35.4 53.3 58.8 97.6 53.3 47.8 36.6 50.4 66.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 30.6 28.7 38.6 96.2 54.3 49.7 18.2 26.5 36.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------