***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.01.2017.-15.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 -4.5 -3.5 -4.9 -1.9 35.4 40.4 -3.7 -2.0 -0.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 -6.1 -4.9 -4.8 -1.6 37.4 41.6 -5.4 -3.3 -1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 -3.8 -2.7 -4.7 -1.7 36.5 41.2 -3.1 -1.2 0.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 -8.7 -7.4 -7.2 -1.4 38.3 42.9 -8.0 -6.0 -4.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 -5.8 -4.9 -6.8 -1.8 36.0 41.3 -5.2 -3.5 -1.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 -6.9 -5.4 -8.1 -0.8 42.8 46.9 -6.4 -4.7 -3.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 -5.9 -4.8 -5.0 -1.8 36.1 40.9 -5.2 -3.1 -1.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 -9.4 -8.4 -8.1 -1.5 37.0 42.2 -8.8 -7.4 -6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 -5.5 -4.2 -6.4 -1.4 38.3 43.0 -4.8 -2.9 -1.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 -6.3 -5.0 -7.7 -1.6 36.9 42.1 -5.5 -3.6 -1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 -6.4 -5.1 -7.2 -1.5 38.3 42.9 -5.7 -3.8 -2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 -7.2 -5.9 -7.5 -1.4 38.2 43.1 -6.5 -4.7 -3.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 -6.9 -5.5 -7.4 -1.2 39.9 44.9 -6.3 -4.4 -2.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 -5.6 -4.1 -6.5 -1.7 36.9 41.5 -4.6 -2.6 -0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 -5.7 -3.8 -5.3 -0.6 44.6 47.1 -5.1 -3.2 -1.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 -5.4 -4.1 -7.5 -1.3 39.5 44.2 -4.8 -3.1 -1.5 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 -6.2 -4.9 -4.9 -1.6 37.8 41.8 -5.5 -3.4 -1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 -8.8 -7.2 -8.0 -1.6 36.8 41.7 -7.7 -5.6 -3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 -5.7 -4.5 -4.8 -1.5 37.8 41.9 -5.1 -3.1 -1.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 -12.3 -10.4 -8.6 -1.4 37.8 42.5 -11.0 -8.9 -6.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 -5.4 -4.4 -5.4 -1.6 37.3 42.1 -4.8 -3.1 -1.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 -6.4 -4.9 -4.7 -1.4 39.0 42.3 -5.7 -3.6 -1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 -5.9 -4.6 -5.0 -1.5 38.0 42.0 -5.2 -3.2 -1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 -5.9 -4.5 -6.5 -1.5 38.0 42.3 -5.1 -3.3 -1.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 -5.7 -4.7 -6.0 -2.0 34.2 39.7 -4.8 -3.0 -1.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 -6.5 -5.1 -7.4 -1.3 38.8 44.4 -5.7 -4.0 -2.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 -5.9 -4.8 -5.4 -2.0 34.7 39.9 -5.0 -2.9 -0.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 -6.8 -5.3 -6.6 -1.0 42.3 45.7 -6.3 -4.5 -2.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 -8.1 -6.7 -8.6 -1.5 37.3 41.8 -7.2 -5.4 -3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 -5.9 -4.7 -4.8 -1.7 36.7 41.2 -5.2 -3.1 -1.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------