***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.01.2017.-08.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 4.4 4.5 3.7 0.5 55.3 55.3 1.5 3.8 6.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 3.9 4.1 4.0 0.6 56.0 55.9 1.3 3.4 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 5.5 5.8 4.5 0.7 57.1 56.7 2.4 4.8 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 3.3 3.2 2.1 1.7 67.7 65.7 -1.8 0.6 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 5.1 5.3 2.8 0.7 56.9 56.4 2.1 4.4 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 4.8 4.9 1.7 0.7 57.8 57.2 1.8 3.9 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 3.6 3.6 3.6 0.4 54.3 54.3 1.1 3.1 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -0.7 -0.8 2.3 0.5 55.4 55.2 -3.0 -1.4 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 6.0 6.6 4.0 0.9 59.7 58.9 2.9 5.3 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 4.9 5.2 3.2 0.8 58.1 57.3 2.3 4.3 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 5.3 5.6 3.4 0.7 57.6 57.0 2.3 4.6 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.8 5.7 2.6 0.5 55.6 55.4 2.6 4.9 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 5.1 5.1 3.1 0.5 55.6 55.2 2.1 4.4 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 6.1 6.4 4.6 0.8 57.1 56.6 2.9 5.4 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 7.0 7.6 4.6 2.6 76.5 73.6 1.7 4.0 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 5.7 5.8 2.6 0.6 56.6 56.1 2.5 4.9 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 3.4 3.7 3.7 0.7 56.7 56.4 1.0 3.0 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 3.2 3.1 2.6 0.4 54.2 54.2 1.0 2.7 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 4.5 4.8 4.2 0.7 56.9 56.6 1.6 3.9 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 2.1 1.5 1.0 0.0 50.6 51.2 -0.8 1.4 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 5.6 6.0 4.5 0.8 57.9 57.5 2.6 4.9 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 4.4 4.8 4.2 0.8 58.0 57.7 1.6 3.8 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 4.3 4.8 4.5 0.9 58.7 58.1 1.6 3.7 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 6.6 6.8 4.3 0.7 56.6 56.2 3.5 5.9 8.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 4.0 4.4 3.2 0.8 57.9 57.4 1.4 3.4 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 4.5 4.2 1.8 0.3 53.8 54.0 2.2 3.8 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 5.1 4.9 3.2 0.3 53.1 53.2 2.2 4.5 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 7.7 7.6 3.3 2.0 69.9 67.7 2.5 4.9 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 2.8 2.5 2.0 0.3 53.2 53.3 -0.2 2.1 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 3.9 4.0 4.0 0.5 55.4 55.3 1.2 3.3 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------