***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.01.2017.-15.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 1.3 2.2 0.9 -2.2 31.8 37.9 2.3 4.3 6.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 -0.2 0.9 0.8 -2.2 32.5 38.5 0.9 3.1 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 0.9 2.0 1.3 -2.3 31.8 37.9 2.2 4.4 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 -2.4 -1.0 -1.1 -1.5 37.6 40.7 -1.5 0.3 2.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 1.1 2.2 0.0 -2.0 33.1 38.7 2.1 4.1 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 1.2 2.2 0.0 -1.5 35.4 41.9 1.9 3.7 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 -0.4 0.4 0.7 -2.3 31.6 38.1 0.6 2.7 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 -2.4 -1.9 -0.1 -2.1 29.9 38.7 -1.6 0.0 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 1.5 2.6 0.8 -2.0 32.4 38.5 2.7 4.9 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 0.9 1.7 0.2 -2.2 30.4 38.3 2.0 4.0 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 1.2 2.3 0.4 -2.0 33.0 39.0 2.3 4.3 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 1.6 2.4 0.2 -2.0 30.9 39.2 2.6 4.6 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 1.1 1.9 0.5 -2.0 31.9 40.1 2.0 4.0 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 0.6 1.7 1.1 -2.6 30.0 37.3 2.2 4.6 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 0.9 2.9 0.5 -1.0 41.6 43.5 1.7 4.0 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 1.7 2.8 0.1 -1.8 33.7 39.9 2.7 4.7 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 -0.2 0.6 0.8 -2.1 33.2 38.8 0.6 2.7 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 -0.3 0.1 0.2 -2.4 29.3 38.3 0.5 2.1 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 0.0 1.2 1.0 -2.2 32.6 38.4 1.2 3.4 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 -1.5 -1.0 -0.6 -2.1 29.8 40.2 -0.7 0.9 2.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 1.1 2.2 1.2 -2.1 32.2 38.2 2.3 4.4 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 -0.1 1.0 1.1 -2.1 33.7 38.9 0.9 3.1 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 -0.4 0.9 1.3 -2.3 32.4 38.2 1.0 3.2 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 1.6 2.6 1.1 -2.4 30.3 37.8 3.0 5.3 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 0.4 1.4 0.0 -2.1 32.0 37.8 1.5 3.5 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 1.7 2.2 0.1 -1.8 30.7 40.4 2.5 4.2 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 1.1 1.9 0.5 -2.3 30.3 37.1 2.2 4.3 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 1.2 3.1 -0.2 -1.3 39.6 42.1 2.1 4.5 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 -0.7 -0.2 -0.1 -2.3 28.8 38.7 0.3 2.2 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 -0.3 0.8 0.8 -2.3 32.1 38.3 0.9 3.0 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------