***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2017.-22.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 1.9 2.4 1.5 -2.1 31.6 39.2 2.5 4.0 5.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 0.8 1.1 1.1 -2.4 30.1 38.2 1.4 3.1 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 2.0 2.6 1.8 -2.3 31.1 39.1 2.8 4.5 6.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 -3.3 -2.2 -0.9 -2.0 32.8 39.5 -2.2 -0.1 1.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 1.9 2.9 0.6 -1.8 34.3 40.7 2.7 4.4 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 2.3 3.9 1.5 -0.5 45.5 48.1 2.7 4.3 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 0.4 0.8 1.2 -2.3 30.6 38.6 1.1 2.8 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 -2.7 -1.2 1.6 -0.8 42.7 46.5 -2.1 -0.5 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 2.5 3.6 1.6 -1.7 35.4 41.5 3.4 5.2 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 1.9 3.4 1.8 -1.1 40.2 44.9 2.6 4.4 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 2.0 3.3 1.1 -1.4 37.6 42.8 2.8 4.6 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 2.6 4.1 1.7 -0.9 41.5 45.7 3.2 5.0 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 2.1 3.9 1.7 -0.5 45.1 48.3 2.6 4.4 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 2.1 3.5 2.3 -1.5 37.1 43.2 3.0 5.0 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 0.8 1.7 -0.5 -2.1 32.0 38.6 1.9 4.0 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 2.5 3.9 1.1 -1.1 39.8 44.5 3.2 5.0 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 0.5 1.0 1.4 -2.1 32.0 39.6 1.1 2.8 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 1.0 2.4 2.3 -0.8 43.2 47.2 1.5 2.9 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 1.0 1.4 1.3 -2.4 30.2 38.5 1.7 3.5 5.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 -0.2 1.9 1.4 -0.1 48.5 50.7 0.3 2.0 3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 2.0 3.0 1.8 -1.9 33.4 40.4 2.9 4.7 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 0.9 1.5 1.5 -2.1 31.8 39.7 1.7 3.5 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 1.1 1.8 2.0 -2.2 32.1 39.9 1.9 3.5 5.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 2.4 3.8 2.3 -1.4 37.8 43.5 3.2 5.2 7.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 1.1 2.0 0.4 -1.8 33.6 40.3 2.0 3.4 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.4 4.1 1.7 -0.3 46.4 49.3 2.9 4.4 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 1.7 2.4 1.3 -1.9 33.1 40.2 2.4 4.1 5.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 1.2 2.3 -0.5 -2.0 33.1 39.8 2.3 4.6 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 0.0 2.0 2.1 -0.5 45.5 48.7 0.6 2.5 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 0.9 1.2 1.0 -2.4 29.7 38.1 1.5 3.1 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------