***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2017.-29.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 1.2 3.3 3.4 -0.3 47.1 50.5 1.7 3.6 5.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 1.1 3.0 3.2 -0.5 45.6 49.5 1.6 3.5 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 1.8 4.1 3.9 -0.4 46.9 50.2 2.3 4.5 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -2.7 -1.0 0.7 -0.6 44.5 47.2 -2.4 -0.4 1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 2.2 4.3 2.2 -0.3 47.2 49.6 2.6 4.6 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 1.8 4.3 2.3 0.4 53.7 54.8 2.2 3.9 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 0.6 2.6 3.3 -0.4 46.7 50.4 1.1 3.0 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -3.3 -1.2 2.6 0.3 53.2 54.5 -3.0 -1.5 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 2.6 4.9 3.2 -0.1 48.9 51.0 3.0 5.0 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 2.1 4.6 3.0 0.2 51.9 53.4 2.5 4.4 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 2.3 4.7 2.5 0.0 50.0 52.0 2.7 4.7 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 2.3 5.0 2.8 0.3 52.6 54.4 2.6 4.6 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.4 5.1 2.5 0.5 54.5 55.8 2.8 4.6 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 2.1 5.4 4.3 0.3 52.4 53.8 2.7 5.1 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 1.2 2.9 1.2 -0.8 42.6 45.8 1.7 3.7 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 2.8 5.4 2.3 0.2 51.5 53.2 3.2 5.2 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 0.9 2.8 3.5 -0.3 47.3 50.3 1.3 3.0 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 1.3 3.7 3.6 0.6 55.4 55.9 1.7 3.2 4.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 1.0 3.2 3.4 -0.5 45.6 49.5 1.6 3.7 5.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 3.8 2.4 2.0 0.7 56.8 57.2 -0.3 1.6 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.4 4.5 3.5 -0.3 47.6 50.2 2.8 4.8 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 1.5 3.5 3.6 -0.4 46.6 49.7 1.9 3.8 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 1.2 3.2 4.0 -0.3 47.1 50.5 1.7 3.6 5.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 2.1 5.1 4.1 0.3 52.6 53.9 2.7 4.8 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 1.5 3.1 1.9 -0.4 46.4 49.3 1.8 3.5 5.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.5 4.5 2.4 0.4 54.3 55.7 2.7 4.2 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 1.5 3.8 3.0 -0.2 48.1 51.0 2.1 4.0 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.0 4.0 1.1 -0.6 44.9 47.5 2.5 4.6 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 3.8 2.3 3.2 0.7 56.7 57.0 -0.3 1.6 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 0.8 2.8 3.1 -0.5 45.8 49.8 1.3 3.2 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------