***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.01.2017.-29.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 2.3 3.1 2.4 -1.0 37.7 41.2 2.8 3.9 5.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 1.4 2.3 2.3 -1.1 37.3 40.8 2.0 3.3 4.4 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 2.8 3.7 2.9 -1.0 38.0 41.3 3.3 4.5 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 -1.6 -0.4 0.2 -0.6 42.4 44.2 -1.1 0.1 1.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 2.7 3.6 1.4 -0.9 39.3 42.0 3.1 4.4 5.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.7 3.8 1.4 -0.2 46.9 47.8 2.9 4.0 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 1.0 2.0 2.2 -1.1 36.9 40.6 1.7 2.9 4.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -2.2 -1.3 1.6 -0.5 42.9 44.9 -1.9 -0.8 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 3.3 4.4 2.4 -0.7 40.8 43.0 3.9 5.1 6.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 2.8 3.8 2.1 -0.6 42.4 44.3 3.1 4.3 5.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.0 4.0 1.8 -0.7 41.7 43.8 3.4 4.5 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.4 4.4 1.8 -0.5 42.7 45.0 3.7 4.8 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.0 4.0 1.9 -0.4 45.1 46.5 3.2 4.3 5.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 3.2 4.3 3.1 -0.8 41.0 43.2 3.7 5.0 6.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.1 3.6 1.5 -0.4 45.7 46.5 2.5 3.9 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.4 4.5 1.5 -0.5 43.0 44.8 3.7 4.9 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 1.1 2.1 2.4 -1.0 38.8 41.5 1.7 2.9 4.0 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 1.6 2.4 2.2 -0.5 43.1 45.0 1.8 2.7 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 1.7 2.7 2.5 -1.1 37.6 41.0 2.3 3.6 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 0.1 1.2 1.0 -0.4 44.8 46.3 0.4 1.5 2.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 2.9 3.9 2.7 -0.9 39.1 41.9 3.5 4.7 5.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 1.7 2.8 2.6 -0.9 39.1 41.6 2.3 3.6 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 1.7 2.7 2.9 -1.0 39.1 41.9 2.3 3.5 4.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 3.5 4.6 3.0 -0.7 41.3 43.6 4.0 5.3 6.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 1.8 2.7 1.4 -0.9 38.8 41.6 2.3 3.5 4.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.0 3.9 1.5 -0.3 44.7 46.8 3.2 4.2 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 2.5 3.3 2.0 -1.0 37.3 40.9 3.0 4.2 5.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.7 4.2 0.9 -0.5 44.1 45.6 3.2 4.6 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 0.6 1.7 1.8 -0.4 44.0 45.7 0.9 2.1 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 1.3 2.2 2.2 -1.2 36.9 40.7 1.9 3.2 4.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------