***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.01.2017.-08.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 5.6 5.2 11.5 88.6 55.7 49.0 2.3 4.3 7.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 5.9 5.9 11.1 91.8 58.3 50.8 2.6 4.7 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 9.7 9.3 12.1 90.6 56.6 50.0 4.2 7.7 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 4.1 5.0 9.2 58.9 35.8 32.4 4.6 7.8 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.5 7.1 12.0 74.5 43.9 40.1 5.1 8.4 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.3 6.5 11.6 83.3 50.8 41.7 3.3 6.4 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 6.1 6.3 10.8 92.5 58.7 50.8 2.7 4.8 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 6.7 11.2 13.4 85.8 50.1 42.5 6.9 11.2 16.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.8 6.8 11.8 79.6 48.0 43.6 4.3 7.1 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.4 7.0 13.6 81.3 47.4 42.4 4.2 7.6 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.9 5.5 11.5 73.9 43.7 38.8 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.6 7.7 12.4 88.4 52.6 43.1 3.2 6.9 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.4 7.6 14.2 82.9 49.3 41.8 4.2 7.7 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 12.3 14.7 18.2 111.2 65.3 57.2 6.9 10.6 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 2.1 3.0 6.0 45.3 35.2 28.8 2.7 5.6 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 4.0 6.1 11.9 76.0 45.9 39.7 3.8 6.9 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.3 5.8 10.0 86.7 56.2 47.4 2.5 4.7 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.0 7.4 15.6 91.4 53.6 47.4 3.7 6.6 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 6.6 6.9 12.1 95.7 59.9 52.6 3.1 5.3 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 4.1 8.0 16.2 86.8 50.0 43.2 4.2 8.0 13.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.4 7.7 11.9 82.9 51.4 45.6 4.4 7.5 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 6.5 6.8 12.0 95.5 60.4 51.9 2.7 5.0 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 7.1 8.5 13.8 104.1 63.0 55.3 3.6 6.0 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.5 15.0 96.4 57.7 50.9 5.3 8.6 12.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.0 8.1 12.9 82.4 51.1 45.8 4.5 7.9 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 3.3 5.5 10.9 76.5 45.7 39.6 3.2 6.5 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 7.4 6.9 12.2 89.2 55.6 49.1 3.2 5.9 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 2.6 3.6 8.1 57.0 37.8 32.3 2.9 5.7 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.1 12.9 16.0 91.4 53.4 47.0 7.2 11.8 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 6.1 6.3 11.3 93.0 58.6 50.9 2.7 4.8 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------