***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.01.2017.-15.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 7.6 8.8 15.3 141.0 75.7 62.3 1.6 3.4 6.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 8.8 11.2 13.6 152.9 78.4 62.3 2.0 4.1 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 8.5 9.6 14.4 137.7 74.8 63.1 2.1 4.2 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 7.9 9.0 16.7 139.2 75.3 63.9 2.3 4.2 6.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 9.0 10.1 15.4 135.3 74.1 64.2 2.3 4.6 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 7.3 8.7 15.0 145.0 76.8 64.5 1.8 3.6 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 7.9 10.0 13.5 152.1 78.2 61.5 1.7 3.7 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 7.5 11.7 14.9 127.2 71.9 61.9 3.0 5.7 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 6.7 7.3 15.4 132.2 73.3 64.2 1.8 3.5 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 6.3 9.8 14.6 126.3 71.6 62.2 2.3 4.6 8.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 7.4 8.6 15.3 134.4 73.9 64.1 1.8 3.7 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 4.8 8.3 14.6 132.9 73.5 62.7 1.7 3.6 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 7.6 8.5 15.1 136.5 74.5 63.4 1.8 3.6 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 7.4 12.1 16.8 132.8 73.4 62.7 3.0 5.8 9.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 8.1 9.5 16.5 142.8 76.0 62.3 2.3 4.2 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 7.4 8.7 15.3 139.4 75.3 64.1 1.9 3.8 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 7.7 9.6 13.2 147.2 77.0 60.6 2.1 4.1 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 9.2 9.2 14.8 122.1 70.2 61.6 2.4 4.8 8.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 8.8 10.9 13.7 148.3 77.4 62.5 2.1 4.3 7.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 7.2 11.6 19.0 125.8 71.3 62.2 2.5 5.3 9.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 7.7 8.5 15.2 131.2 73.0 62.6 1.9 3.8 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 8.5 10.1 13.3 144.8 76.5 62.0 2.1 4.2 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 7.4 8.8 14.0 138.0 74.9 61.9 1.5 3.4 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 8.0 8.8 15.5 130.2 72.7 63.0 1.9 3.9 7.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 8.6 9.3 17.1 138.4 74.9 63.7 1.9 3.9 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 6.1 7.1 15.1 141.8 75.8 64.6 1.7 3.2 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 8.4 9.7 16.3 142.6 76.1 62.9 1.9 3.9 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 7.5 8.7 15.7 140.5 75.6 62.3 2.4 4.2 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 13.3 14.2 16.8 127.1 71.8 63.4 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 8.0 10.0 13.9 150.0 77.7 62.7 1.8 3.8 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------