***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2017.-22.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.1 6.4 11.8 110.6 66.5 51.6 2.0 3.8 6.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.0 7.2 10.4 114.5 67.9 53.1 1.6 3.7 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 2.3 9.0 11.6 113.1 67.3 53.5 2.1 4.7 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 5.0 14.6 12.9 114.2 67.8 54.9 4.8 8.7 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 2.9 8.5 11.8 101.2 63.0 52.9 2.5 5.3 9.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.6 7.4 11.6 113.3 67.2 55.5 2.4 4.4 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 1.7 6.1 10.5 115.4 68.2 52.0 1.5 3.2 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 12.5 13.5 11.7 96.8 61.3 52.3 5.3 9.7 15.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.1 6.7 12.3 99.8 62.2 52.6 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 7.2 7.6 12.0 96.8 61.0 52.3 2.8 5.3 9.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.9 7.6 11.1 99.3 62.5 53.6 2.9 5.3 8.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.1 6.7 10.8 99.8 62.5 53.0 2.7 4.7 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 5.8 6.7 11.7 105.3 64.4 54.2 2.5 4.4 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 9.5 10.4 12.5 100.9 62.3 52.0 3.5 6.8 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.9 12.6 14.4 137.1 74.6 57.5 2.5 5.3 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 5.4 6.3 11.3 104.1 64.1 54.0 1.9 3.8 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 1.8 6.1 10.2 114.0 67.9 52.9 1.6 3.2 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 7.1 7.3 12.2 94.3 59.7 50.3 3.0 5.4 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 2.1 8.0 10.4 112.7 67.2 53.3 1.8 4.0 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.9 15.8 96.4 61.2 50.7 3.0 5.0 7.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 2.9 8.5 12.4 108.4 65.4 53.6 2.5 5.1 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 6.3 8.0 10.4 110.8 66.7 52.6 2.1 4.4 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 2.4 8.1 10.8 108.4 65.6 53.0 2.2 4.6 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.1 9.2 12.1 102.4 62.9 52.1 2.5 5.5 10.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.7 7.5 12.7 105.3 64.3 50.6 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 1.9 4.8 11.1 107.5 65.4 52.9 1.8 3.2 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.1 6.1 12.1 105.7 64.5 49.9 1.8 3.7 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.5 9.1 12.9 122.6 70.3 56.2 2.2 4.6 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 11.3 11.3 13.1 93.7 59.3 49.8 4.3 8.3 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 1.9 7.1 10.7 113.1 67.3 52.6 1.5 3.6 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------