***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2017.-29.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 8.2 7.9 9.1 87.3 57.8 45.4 3.1 6.0 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 7.0 7.8 8.8 96.5 61.9 48.8 2.5 5.2 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 10.0 9.7 9.2 89.6 59.0 46.9 3.5 7.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.8 7.2 8.6 74.0 53.3 45.3 3.2 6.4 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.4 7.3 8.6 70.8 50.6 43.8 3.8 7.0 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.3 8.5 8.9 75.3 52.9 45.2 4.2 7.8 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 7.0 8.1 8.8 99.8 63.2 49.7 2.5 5.1 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 12.1 9.9 9.4 74.0 52.2 45.9 5.4 9.3 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.9 5.8 9.3 73.1 51.2 44.2 2.6 5.6 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.6 6.6 9.8 74.2 51.5 45.1 3.1 6.3 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.4 6.2 8.5 71.5 50.6 44.2 3.1 6.1 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.3 6.5 8.5 73.3 51.8 45.3 2.8 6.0 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.9 7.5 9.6 76.0 52.7 45.5 3.3 6.9 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.6 13.0 11.6 91.9 59.3 48.8 4.6 9.3 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 3.2 8.8 9.7 87.8 61.2 50.5 2.6 5.8 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.9 6.8 8.6 71.9 50.8 44.2 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.9 7.8 8.5 100.0 63.3 50.2 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.7 7.1 10.6 78.0 53.0 46.0 3.0 6.3 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 7.7 8.7 9.2 97.0 62.0 49.0 2.9 5.8 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.4 8.3 12.9 79.8 54.6 47.4 3.4 6.9 12.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.2 7.1 9.3 79.4 54.4 45.2 3.0 6.1 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.3 8.2 9.1 97.1 62.2 49.7 2.6 5.3 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.3 8.3 10.0 98.6 62.3 49.4 2.6 5.3 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.6 9.5 10.2 83.9 55.9 46.7 4.0 7.8 13.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.3 8.9 9.6 80.4 54.7 44.6 3.9 7.6 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.2 8.1 9.2 78.4 55.1 47.1 3.6 6.9 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.7 8.2 9.5 86.0 57.1 45.4 3.0 6.3 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 7.7 6.7 8.4 76.0 55.0 46.8 2.7 5.6 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.4 11.5 11.5 79.9 53.8 46.3 5.1 10.1 17.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.6 8.2 8.9 94.5 61.2 47.9 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------