***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.01.2017.-29.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 28.0 30.1 47.6 106.1 61.4 52.8 16.7 24.2 33.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 28.6 32.8 43.9 112.0 65.3 56.5 15.8 23.8 33.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 38.6 41.6 47.3 106.7 61.8 54.6 24.3 33.9 44.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 41.4 37.8 47.4 93.8 52.0 48.3 27.2 36.6 47.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 38.1 34.8 47.8 93.2 50.9 48.6 24.6 34.1 44.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 33.4 33.4 47.1 101.6 57.7 54.3 19.7 28.6 39.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 15.7 31.8 43.5 113.3 66.1 56.1 15.6 22.9 31.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 51.4 46.7 49.4 94.7 51.6 49.5 33.0 45.4 59.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 31.5 28.4 48.7 94.7 52.1 49.6 19.0 27.2 37.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 38.2 32.7 50.0 92.9 49.9 48.2 22.8 32.9 44.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 33.6 28.9 46.4 93.0 50.2 48.3 20.0 28.9 39.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 34.3 31.9 46.4 97.5 54.3 51.5 19.5 29.1 40.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 35.9 34.0 50.7 97.4 54.0 51.2 22.7 31.5 41.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 50.6 54.7 59.1 109.3 63.6 57.7 34.7 45.0 56.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 18.6 34.0 46.7 100.4 58.3 51.9 18.1 28.0 40.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 32.5 29.5 47.1 95.4 52.5 50.0 19.2 28.0 38.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 14.5 29.9 41.9 110.3 64.2 55.2 14.5 22.0 31.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 34.9 31.7 53.2 95.6 52.3 50.3 20.8 30.3 41.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 31.7 36.5 45.3 111.8 65.1 57.1 19.6 27.7 37.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 39.8 35.6 64.0 96.6 53.1 50.3 22.3 33.3 46.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 35.0 34.6 48.8 99.4 56.2 51.5 22.4 31.0 40.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 30.4 34.3 44.7 110.7 64.4 56.4 17.1 25.4 35.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 31.0 36.1 48.7 111.7 65.1 57.7 19.1 27.2 36.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 42.1 42.8 52.8 102.7 58.4 54.3 28.8 37.9 48.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 37.1 37.1 52.3 100.5 57.1 50.9 23.3 32.7 43.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 28.9 27.6 46.3 98.5 55.4 51.7 15.9 24.4 34.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 31.7 33.5 50.0 105.1 60.6 52.2 18.7 27.1 37.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 17.0 28.6 45.0 96.3 54.4 50.1 16.8 26.0 37.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 55.9 52.7 57.4 97.2 53.7 51.0 35.5 49.3 65.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 29.4 33.5 44.8 111.2 64.8 55.9 17.2 24.9 34.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------