***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2016.-17.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 -0.6 -1.0 -1.2 1.8 65.4 64.2 -3.7 -2.3 -1.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 -1.3 -1.7 -1.4 1.9 65.5 64.3 -5.4 -3.5 -1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 0.5 0.1 -1.5 1.8 65.6 64.3 -2.8 -1.3 0.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 -5.5 -4.9 -4.9 1.4 61.8 60.9 -7.9 -6.1 -4.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 -2.0 -2.3 -4.3 1.9 65.0 63.6 -5.0 -3.5 -2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 -3.0 -3.0 -5.3 2.3 69.9 67.4 -6.1 -4.7 -3.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 -0.9 -1.5 -1.3 1.9 65.7 64.5 -5.4 -3.3 -1.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 -5.8 -5.7 -4.5 2.6 70.0 67.6 -8.8 -7.4 -6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 -1.3 -1.4 -3.1 2.1 66.6 65.0 -4.5 -2.9 -1.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 -2.0 -1.9 -3.9 2.5 69.5 67.4 -5.1 -3.6 -2.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 -2.1 -2.2 -4.5 2.1 66.7 64.9 -5.5 -3.8 -2.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 -3.0 -3.0 -4.2 2.4 69.1 67.0 -6.3 -4.7 -3.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 -2.2 -2.2 -4.5 2.5 70.2 67.9 -6.2 -4.4 -2.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 -0.8 -0.7 -2.7 2.4 70.0 68.2 -4.4 -2.7 -1.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 -2.7 -2.4 -4.5 0.9 58.0 57.6 -5.0 -3.2 -1.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 -1.5 -1.6 -4.9 2.2 67.3 65.5 -4.4 -3.0 -1.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 -1.3 -1.9 -1.3 2.0 65.6 64.4 -5.6 -3.6 -1.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 -3.5 -3.2 -4.0 2.7 71.4 69.1 -7.5 -5.6 -3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 -1.2 -1.6 -1.4 1.8 65.7 64.4 -5.0 -3.2 -1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 -7.0 -6.7 -5.5 2.7 70.9 68.1 -10.9 -9.1 -7.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 -1.5 -1.8 -2.1 1.9 65.7 64.2 -4.5 -3.1 -1.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 -1.6 -2.0 -1.3 2.0 66.2 64.8 -5.6 -3.8 -2.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 -1.3 -1.6 -1.7 1.9 66.6 65.2 -5.1 -3.3 -1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 -1.7 -1.7 -2.9 2.3 69.2 67.4 -5.0 -3.5 -2.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 -1.3 -1.7 -3.2 1.7 65.0 63.7 -4.5 -3.0 -1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 -2.1 -2.1 -4.2 2.4 70.0 67.6 -5.4 -3.9 -2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 -1.0 -1.5 -2.1 1.9 65.6 64.4 -4.9 -3.1 -1.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 -4.1 -3.6 -4.9 1.3 60.3 59.5 -6.1 -4.5 -3.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 -3.6 -3.5 -4.6 2.6 70.8 68.4 -7.1 -5.5 -4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 -1.0 -1.5 -1.3 1.8 65.6 64.3 -5.3 -3.3 -1.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------