***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2016.-10.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 4.6 3.1 2.5 -0.8 43.6 44.0 1.5 4.0 6.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 4.0 2.0 2.2 -1.1 40.7 41.4 0.9 3.2 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 5.2 3.7 2.9 -0.7 44.2 44.7 2.0 4.5 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 1.2 -1.1 -0.6 -1.5 37.7 38.8 -1.7 0.5 2.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 4.7 3.3 1.4 -0.7 44.0 44.5 1.7 4.1 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 4.3 4.8 2.3 0.9 58.4 57.8 1.5 3.7 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 3.5 1.8 2.0 -1.0 41.6 42.2 0.6 2.9 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 -0.6 -0.3 2.7 0.7 57.2 56.7 -2.5 -1.0 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 5.7 4.3 2.4 -0.6 44.4 44.9 2.5 5.1 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 4.6 4.3 2.8 0.2 52.3 52.2 1.8 4.0 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 5.0 4.0 2.0 -0.3 47.4 47.7 1.9 4.3 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 5.3 5.4 2.7 0.5 54.6 54.2 2.2 4.7 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 4.7 5.1 3.3 0.8 57.4 56.8 1.7 4.1 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 5.7 4.8 3.5 -0.2 47.9 48.1 2.4 5.1 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 5.0 1.4 0.0 -2.1 32.3 33.3 1.5 3.9 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 5.4 4.6 1.9 -0.1 49.4 49.6 2.2 4.7 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 3.5 1.7 1.9 -1.1 41.1 41.7 0.6 2.8 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 2.8 3.1 3.3 0.7 56.8 56.4 0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 4.5 2.4 2.4 -1.0 41.4 42.2 1.1 3.7 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 47 53 100 3.2 3.1 2.7 1.5 65.2 64.3 -1.0 1.2 3.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 5.2 3.6 2.6 -0.8 43.0 43.6 2.1 4.6 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 4.4 2.5 2.3 -0.9 41.9 42.6 1.2 3.6 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 4.1 2.6 2.9 -0.7 43.6 44.2 1.1 3.4 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 6.3 5.7 3.7 0.1 50.7 50.7 3.0 5.6 8.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 3.8 2.4 1.6 -0.8 43.4 43.9 1.1 3.3 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 4.3 5.3 3.1 1.3 62.9 62.2 1.9 3.8 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 4.8 3.6 2.4 -0.6 45.3 45.6 1.8 4.3 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.8 2.9 -0.1 -1.6 36.5 37.6 2.3 4.8 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 2.7 3.5 3.1 1.1 60.7 60.0 -0.1 2.1 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 3.9 2.0 2.3 -1.0 41.6 42.2 0.8 3.1 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------