***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2016.-24.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 4.5 5.0 4.0 1.2 62.5 58.5 2.2 3.9 5.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 3.9 4.8 4.1 1.6 65.9 61.4 1.5 3.2 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 5.2 5.7 4.1 1.2 61.9 58.3 2.6 4.4 6.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 0.5 0.8 1.5 0.9 59.5 56.6 -2.6 -0.4 1.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.1 5.1 2.1 0.8 57.8 55.1 2.7 4.4 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.7 1.3 0.5 55.4 53.2 2.4 4.1 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 4.7 4.5 4.0 1.6 66.2 61.5 1.2 2.9 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 0.0 -0.2 1.7 0.5 55.3 53.2 -2.4 -0.7 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.9 2.9 0.7 57.1 54.5 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 5.2 5.0 2.3 0.5 55.4 53.3 2.6 4.4 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 5.3 5.2 2.0 0.6 56.6 54.2 2.7 4.5 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 5.7 5.5 2.0 0.6 56.5 54.1 2.9 4.8 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 5.2 5.1 1.6 0.6 55.9 53.6 2.6 4.4 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.9 3.6 0.9 58.3 55.8 2.9 5.0 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.4 4.8 1.7 1.0 60.5 57.6 1.4 3.5 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 5.9 5.8 1.7 0.6 56.4 54.0 3.2 5.1 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 3.4 4.3 4.1 1.6 66.3 61.8 1.2 2.8 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 3.7 3.4 2.2 0.5 54.5 52.8 1.6 3.1 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 4.3 5.1 4.2 1.5 64.8 60.7 1.7 3.6 5.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 3.1 2.6 0.6 0.3 53.4 52.1 0.4 2.3 4.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 5.4 5.6 3.5 0.9 59.3 56.2 2.8 4.6 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 4.2 5.1 4.2 1.5 65.3 61.3 1.7 3.5 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 4.2 4.7 4.3 1.3 62.7 59.1 1.8 3.5 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 5.7 5.8 3.4 0.7 57.3 54.9 3.0 5.0 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 4.0 4.3 2.3 1.0 60.3 56.8 1.9 3.4 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 2.4 5.1 1.6 0.7 58.0 54.9 2.8 4.3 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 4.8 5.3 3.2 1.1 61.7 57.7 2.4 4.1 5.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.1 5.4 1.7 0.9 59.1 56.4 2.0 4.2 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 3.2 2.9 1.6 0.4 54.3 52.6 0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 3.9 4.6 4.1 1.5 65.1 60.7 1.5 3.2 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------