***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2016.-31.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 4.3 5.2 4.7 1.4 63.1 61.3 1.7 3.7 5.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 5.6 5.4 5.0 1.8 66.2 63.9 1.8 3.7 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 5.5 6.4 4.9 1.4 63.2 61.1 2.7 4.8 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 0.0 0.8 2.5 1.4 62.9 60.1 -2.3 -0.6 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 5.3 6.0 3.0 1.2 61.3 59.2 2.7 4.7 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 4.7 5.1 2.1 1.0 59.8 58.2 2.4 4.1 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 5.2 5.1 4.8 1.7 66.1 64.0 1.3 3.2 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -1.2 -1.0 2.6 0.9 59.0 57.7 -3.1 -1.7 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 5.9 6.6 3.9 1.2 61.0 59.2 3.2 5.3 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 5.5 5.9 3.3 1.0 59.8 58.3 2.9 4.8 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 5.7 6.2 2.9 1.0 60.0 58.3 3.0 5.0 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.7 6.0 2.8 0.9 58.8 57.4 3.0 5.0 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.7 2.3 0.8 57.9 56.9 3.0 4.9 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 6.2 6.8 4.6 1.2 61.4 59.7 3.1 5.3 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 4.7 5.6 2.7 1.5 64.0 60.8 2.4 4.2 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 6.0 6.5 2.5 1.0 59.7 58.1 3.3 5.3 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 5.0 5.0 5.0 1.9 67.8 65.1 1.5 3.2 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 4.0 4.2 3.2 1.0 58.9 57.9 1.9 3.4 4.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 6.0 5.7 5.1 1.7 65.5 63.3 1.8 3.9 5.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 2.3 2.3 1.5 0.8 57.7 57.1 -0.1 1.6 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 5.6 6.4 4.4 1.3 62.4 60.2 3.0 5.0 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 6.0 6.0 5.2 1.9 67.6 64.8 2.1 4.0 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 5.9 5.5 5.2 1.6 64.3 62.1 2.0 3.9 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 5.8 6.3 4.4 1.1 60.5 59.0 3.1 5.1 7.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 4.2 4.9 3.1 1.3 62.5 60.6 1.9 3.6 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.0 5.1 2.1 0.8 58.0 56.9 3.0 4.4 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 4.8 5.5 3.9 1.3 62.5 60.9 2.1 4.1 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 5.7 6.6 2.7 1.4 63.3 60.3 3.0 5.1 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 2.2 2.3 2.6 0.8 57.8 57.1 -0.3 1.5 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 4.2 5.2 4.9 1.6 65.0 62.9 1.6 3.5 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------