***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2016.-31.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 4.2 4.7 3.8 0.9 62.0 59.9 2.8 3.9 4.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 3.7 4.3 3.9 1.1 63.8 61.6 2.0 3.3 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 4.9 5.4 4.1 0.9 62.6 60.3 3.3 4.5 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 0.4 0.4 1.3 0.5 56.7 55.2 -1.3 -0.1 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 4.7 5.0 2.3 0.7 59.5 57.4 3.2 4.4 5.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 4.2 4.9 2.0 1.1 65.0 61.9 2.9 4.0 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 3.3 4.0 3.8 1.1 64.2 62.0 1.6 2.9 4.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 -0.6 0.0 2.4 0.9 64.2 61.2 -1.9 -0.9 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 5.5 5.8 3.2 0.7 60.0 57.8 3.9 5.1 6.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 4.6 5.2 2.9 0.9 62.6 59.9 3.2 4.3 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 4.9 5.3 2.4 0.7 60.5 58.2 3.4 4.5 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 5.2 5.7 2.6 0.9 63.2 60.4 3.7 4.8 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 4.7 5.3 2.4 1.0 63.8 61.0 3.3 4.4 5.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 5.5 6.1 4.0 1.0 63.7 61.0 3.6 5.0 6.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 4.4 4.2 1.5 0.3 54.2 53.4 2.5 3.9 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 5.3 5.7 2.1 0.8 61.1 58.7 3.8 5.0 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 3.2 3.9 3.7 1.1 64.6 62.3 1.7 2.9 4.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 3.1 3.6 3.0 1.0 64.4 61.4 1.8 2.8 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 4.0 4.7 4.0 1.1 63.8 61.4 2.3 3.6 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 1.8 2.5 1.7 1.1 66.5 62.9 0.4 1.5 2.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 5.1 5.4 3.6 0.8 60.3 58.2 3.4 4.7 5.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 4.0 4.7 4.0 1.1 65.1 62.5 2.3 3.6 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 3.9 4.5 4.2 1.0 63.9 61.4 2.3 3.5 4.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 5.7 6.3 3.9 1.0 63.6 60.9 3.9 5.2 6.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 3.8 4.1 2.4 0.7 59.9 58.0 2.3 3.5 4.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 44 56 100 5.2 5.1 2.3 1.1 66.5 63.3 3.2 4.2 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 4.5 5.0 3.3 0.9 62.0 59.9 2.9 4.2 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 5.2 5.2 1.5 0.5 56.2 54.8 3.2 4.7 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 2.4 3.1 2.5 1.0 65.4 62.2 0.9 2.0 3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 3.6 4.2 3.9 1.0 63.4 61.2 1.9 3.2 4.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------