***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2016.-17.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 5.9 6.9 13.3 136.0 74.3 60.4 1.5 2.9 5.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 6.6 8.1 12.5 141.5 75.7 59.4 1.6 3.3 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 6.8 7.6 13.7 133.7 73.7 59.5 1.6 3.3 5.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 5.5 7.5 13.5 119.5 69.6 56.5 2.5 4.4 6.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 7.7 8.6 15.3 131.1 73.1 61.6 2.0 3.9 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 6.5 6.9 15.4 129.0 72.4 60.9 1.5 3.1 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 3.8 7.5 12.3 146.5 76.9 60.0 1.2 2.7 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 7.5 12.2 15.7 127.8 72.1 60.8 2.7 5.5 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 5.0 5.5 16.0 130.9 72.9 61.4 1.6 2.9 4.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 7.5 8.3 16.6 130.1 72.7 61.5 2.1 4.0 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 6.3 7.0 14.2 129.1 72.6 60.8 1.5 3.1 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 3.7 5.8 13.7 126.8 71.9 59.9 1.4 2.8 4.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 6.5 7.2 14.9 136.4 74.4 63.2 1.7 3.3 5.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 6.3 9.6 17.0 126.0 71.5 58.8 2.5 4.7 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.4 6.0 12.6 114.8 68.7 56.3 1.7 3.3 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 7.0 7.7 13.9 128.0 72.2 60.4 1.8 3.6 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 4.3 7.4 11.7 145.7 76.7 59.7 1.7 3.2 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 7.7 8.1 18.2 127.5 71.9 61.0 2.3 4.2 6.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 4.6 7.9 13.0 136.2 74.4 58.6 1.5 3.2 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 7.5 8.2 20.1 127.0 72.0 61.5 2.0 3.9 6.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 6.2 6.9 14.7 133.4 73.6 60.7 2.0 3.5 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 2.0 8.3 12.4 136.9 74.5 58.2 1.7 3.5 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 3.8 6.6 14.0 130.3 72.8 58.0 1.1 2.6 5.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 5.2 7.6 16.5 126.8 71.7 59.4 2.3 4.1 6.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 6.7 7.6 15.0 135.6 74.2 61.6 1.5 3.2 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 4.5 5.0 14.4 138.0 74.8 63.5 1.5 2.6 3.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 6.3 7.3 14.3 136.4 74.4 60.9 1.4 3.1 5.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 4.4 6.1 13.0 114.7 68.4 56.0 1.7 3.3 5.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 8.5 12.6 19.1 125.9 71.5 60.6 3.5 6.5 10.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 5.9 7.1 12.8 139.6 75.2 59.6 1.3 2.8 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------