***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2016.-24.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 2.6 9.1 11.3 124.0 70.7 53.6 2.5 4.8 7.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 6.5 8.2 9.6 111.2 66.6 49.1 2.1 4.5 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.3 12.4 11.9 124.7 70.9 53.1 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.1 14.5 13.2 113.2 67.0 51.3 5.0 8.9 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.6 11.0 14.0 114.8 67.3 52.9 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.1 8.1 14.2 108.0 64.5 52.2 3.2 5.5 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 5.9 7.2 9.3 109.4 66.1 49.5 2.3 4.3 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 6.0 17.2 15.8 119.8 69.1 55.2 5.6 9.9 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.2 10.1 14.9 120.0 69.2 54.2 3.0 5.5 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.3 11.1 16.1 119.9 69.1 55.1 4.1 6.8 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.8 9.6 13.3 112.0 66.2 52.6 3.6 6.2 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 8.0 10.4 13.7 116.9 68.2 54.2 3.3 6.0 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.7 9.4 13.9 112.5 66.4 53.5 3.6 6.0 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.4 17.1 15.0 122.9 70.3 54.4 5.2 9.4 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 3.6 12.6 12.3 112.8 67.6 48.9 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.3 7.5 12.8 108.2 64.8 51.7 2.7 4.8 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 5.5 7.0 9.2 111.2 66.8 49.0 2.0 4.0 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.3 11.3 17.7 123.3 70.4 56.7 4.2 6.8 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 3.5 10.4 10.1 114.4 67.5 49.6 3.1 6.0 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 13.3 12.9 19.9 121.4 69.7 56.1 4.7 7.8 11.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.3 11.7 13.6 128.0 72.0 55.2 3.2 6.0 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 7.1 9.1 9.8 112.8 67.2 49.9 2.8 5.3 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 7.4 10.4 11.6 121.5 69.8 51.8 2.6 5.3 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.2 14.2 15.4 125.4 71.2 55.6 4.1 7.5 12.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 3.2 11.1 13.2 118.9 69.0 53.9 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.6 7.2 14.0 116.2 68.0 53.4 2.4 4.3 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.7 9.1 12.0 117.8 68.6 53.5 2.6 5.0 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.0 9.0 12.6 109.9 66.1 50.0 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 19.1 18.8 18.6 123.0 70.3 56.8 6.3 10.8 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.6 8.6 9.9 113.5 67.2 49.7 2.2 4.6 8.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------