***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2016.-31.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 3.2 6.9 6.2 81.1 55.3 41.9 2.9 5.7 9.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 2.3 6.8 6.8 91.6 60.5 44.2 2.3 4.7 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.9 8.5 6.5 79.1 54.3 41.8 3.4 7.2 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 4.2 7.8 6.0 69.4 49.8 39.2 4.4 7.9 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 4.9 9.6 6.9 76.6 53.6 42.6 4.8 8.6 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.5 9.7 8.0 85.0 57.4 43.4 4.4 7.8 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 2.5 6.9 6.6 91.5 60.1 44.2 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 5.9 12.0 7.7 80.8 54.8 42.4 6.2 10.6 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.4 7.3 7.5 78.3 54.2 43.3 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.8 9.7 8.2 81.1 54.9 43.4 4.8 8.5 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.9 8.2 6.6 79.5 55.0 43.1 3.8 7.0 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 2.9 6.9 6.6 81.1 55.4 42.5 3.0 5.7 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.8 8.9 7.5 86.4 57.4 43.8 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.1 11.9 9.4 87.5 57.8 45.4 4.6 9.2 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.2 4.4 5.0 62.6 47.7 35.8 2.1 4.7 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.4 7.7 6.5 80.4 55.5 43.0 3.2 6.3 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 2.5 7.1 6.8 95.3 62.0 43.9 2.5 4.8 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 4.3 9.0 9.6 84.0 55.7 44.1 4.1 7.5 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 2.7 7.3 7.0 89.5 59.6 44.2 2.6 5.3 9.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 3.7 7.9 10.6 83.7 55.8 42.6 3.8 6.7 10.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.1 7.7 6.6 75.7 52.6 41.7 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 2.4 7.6 7.2 94.2 62.0 45.5 2.3 4.9 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 2.9 7.0 7.4 87.1 58.4 44.4 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 5.9 11.4 8.5 81.8 55.4 43.8 5.5 9.8 15.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 4.0 8.9 7.0 79.3 54.0 42.0 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 3.9 8.9 7.4 88.4 58.5 43.4 4.1 7.0 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.3 8.2 7.1 85.2 56.9 43.3 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 2.6 5.2 5.5 67.3 49.2 37.9 2.5 5.4 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 6.1 12.8 10.5 85.9 56.5 44.2 5.9 10.6 16.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 2.5 6.9 6.7 88.5 58.9 43.5 2.4 5.0 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------