***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2021.-10.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 7.4 7.8 6.2 2.7 75.7 74.1 1.5 4.0 6.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 5.9 5.9 5.7 1.9 69.2 68.2 0.9 3.2 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 7.6 7.8 6.4 2.3 71.0 69.6 2.0 4.5 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 3.6 3.8 3.3 2.4 74.2 72.7 -1.7 0.5 2.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 7.5 8.0 5.3 2.9 76.4 74.6 1.7 4.1 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 6.6 7.3 4.1 2.7 76.0 74.1 1.5 3.7 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 5.7 5.8 5.7 2.1 71.9 70.7 0.6 2.9 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 46 54 100 0.5 0.7 3.9 1.9 68.5 67.3 -2.5 -1.0 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 8.6 9.0 6.1 2.6 74.9 73.0 2.5 5.1 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 6.4 6.8 4.8 2.2 70.7 69.2 1.8 4.0 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 7.7 8.4 6.0 2.9 76.7 74.7 1.9 4.3 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 7.8 8.2 4.8 2.4 73.5 72.0 2.2 4.7 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 7.4 8.1 6.0 3.1 77.1 75.4 1.7 4.1 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 5.6 7.0 5.5 1.3 62.3 61.1 2.4 5.1 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 7.6 8.0 5.2 2.7 77.4 76.0 1.5 3.9 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 8.1 9.0 5.4 3.1 77.6 75.5 2.2 4.7 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 5.1 5.1 5.2 1.7 67.6 66.6 0.6 2.8 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 2.8 4.3 4.1 1.8 67.0 65.6 0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 6.4 6.4 5.8 1.8 68.1 67.1 1.1 3.7 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 90 10 100 1.5 2.7 2.3 1.3 62.1 61.2 -1.0 1.2 3.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 7.9 8.1 6.6 2.5 73.4 71.6 2.1 4.6 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 49 51 100 5.8 5.7 5.4 1.4 64.9 64.1 1.2 3.6 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 5.8 5.8 5.9 1.8 67.4 66.3 1.1 3.4 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 6.1 8.2 5.7 1.8 66.8 65.3 3.0 5.6 8.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 14 86 100 6.6 6.9 5.6 2.8 76.7 75.0 1.1 3.3 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 6.4 6.9 4.2 2.6 75.9 74.6 1.9 3.8 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 7.8 8.3 5.9 2.7 76.1 74.5 1.8 4.3 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 8.2 8.5 4.2 2.5 74.3 72.8 2.3 4.8 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 2.6 4.3 3.5 1.7 66.5 65.2 -0.1 2.1 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 6.1 6.2 5.9 2.2 71.4 70.1 0.8 3.1 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------