***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2021.-31.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 4.5 4.3 5.0 0.6 55.6 54.1 1.7 3.7 5.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 4.4 4.1 4.9 0.4 53.9 53.2 1.8 3.7 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.5 5.6 0.7 56.3 54.6 2.7 4.8 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 0.2 0.1 2.7 0.7 56.6 54.0 -2.3 -0.6 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.5 5.5 3.8 0.7 56.7 54.6 2.7 4.7 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.7 3.0 0.6 55.8 54.9 2.4 4.1 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 4.0 3.6 4.8 0.3 53.1 52.7 1.3 3.2 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -1.2 -1.3 3.5 0.6 55.8 54.5 -3.1 -1.7 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.1 6.0 4.6 0.7 56.3 54.4 3.2 5.3 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.4 4.0 0.7 56.1 54.5 2.9 4.8 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.9 4.0 0.8 57.3 55.4 3.0 5.0 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.8 3.9 0.7 56.9 55.3 3.0 5.0 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.5 3.2 0.6 55.6 54.9 3.0 4.9 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 2.7 6.1 5.1 0.7 56.1 54.8 3.1 5.3 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.9 5.0 3.5 0.9 57.9 55.1 2.4 4.2 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.2 6.1 3.5 0.7 56.8 55.3 3.3 5.3 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 3.9 3.4 4.8 0.2 51.8 51.8 1.5 3.2 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 1.6 3.9 4.0 0.6 55.4 54.5 1.9 3.4 4.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 4.7 4.4 5.2 0.5 54.8 53.8 1.8 3.9 5.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -0.4 1.8 2.0 0.3 52.3 52.8 -0.1 1.6 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.7 5.1 0.7 56.3 54.4 3.0 5.0 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.8 4.4 5.1 0.4 53.3 52.8 2.1 4.0 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 4.7 4.5 5.7 0.6 55.5 54.2 2.0 3.9 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 2.8 5.7 4.9 0.7 55.8 54.5 3.1 5.1 7.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 4.4 4.1 3.5 0.5 54.6 53.1 1.9 3.6 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.0 4.9 3.1 0.6 55.9 55.0 3.0 4.4 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.6 4.3 0.4 54.2 53.2 2.1 4.1 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.9 6.0 3.2 0.9 57.7 55.0 3.0 5.1 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 -0.6 2.0 3.4 0.5 54.8 54.4 -0.3 1.5 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 4.3 4.0 4.9 0.5 54.9 53.8 1.6 3.5 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------