***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2021.-31.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 4.2 5.0 5.0 1.2 66.3 64.3 2.8 3.9 4.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 3.6 4.2 4.9 0.9 62.3 60.9 2.0 3.3 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 45 55 100 5.7 5.7 5.6 1.3 66.3 64.2 3.3 4.5 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 0.3 1.1 2.5 1.2 66.0 63.6 -1.3 -0.1 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 5.5 5.8 4.1 1.5 69.8 66.9 3.2 4.4 5.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 5.2 5.3 3.2 1.5 70.9 67.4 2.9 4.0 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 3.3 3.8 4.7 0.9 62.3 60.9 1.6 2.9 4.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 -0.6 0.2 3.5 1.3 68.0 64.7 -1.9 -0.9 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 44 56 100 6.3 6.5 4.9 1.5 69.2 66.3 3.9 5.1 6.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 46 54 100 5.4 5.6 4.2 1.4 68.8 65.6 3.2 4.3 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 5.8 6.1 4.5 1.7 71.5 68.3 3.4 4.5 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 6.0 6.2 4.1 1.5 70.6 67.2 3.7 4.8 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 5.7 5.9 4.1 1.6 71.7 68.3 3.3 4.4 5.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 5.4 6.2 5.1 1.1 64.6 62.2 3.6 5.0 6.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 4.3 5.3 3.7 1.3 66.7 64.6 2.5 3.9 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 6.3 6.5 4.0 1.7 71.6 68.4 3.8 5.0 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 3.2 3.6 4.6 0.7 59.9 58.7 1.7 2.9 4.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 3.1 3.7 4.0 1.3 67.4 64.2 1.8 2.8 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 4.0 4.6 5.1 1.0 63.3 61.7 2.3 3.6 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 1.8 2.3 2.1 0.9 62.7 60.1 0.4 1.5 2.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 5.9 6.0 5.3 1.4 68.0 65.4 3.4 4.7 5.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 4.0 4.4 4.9 0.8 60.7 59.3 2.3 3.6 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 4.7 4.6 5.5 1.2 64.7 62.8 2.3 3.5 4.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 5.7 6.6 5.1 1.3 66.5 63.8 3.9 5.2 6.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 3.8 4.5 3.9 1.2 66.3 64.0 2.3 3.5 4.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 5.3 5.4 3.3 1.4 70.2 66.9 3.2 4.2 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 4.5 5.3 4.5 1.1 65.5 63.5 2.9 4.2 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 46 54 100 6.1 6.2 3.2 1.3 67.2 64.8 3.2 4.7 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 2.4 3.2 3.4 1.2 66.9 63.6 0.9 2.0 3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 3.5 4.2 4.9 1.1 63.9 62.3 1.9 3.2 4.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------