***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2021.-10.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 9.2 16.5 23.3 230.4 91.0 84.0 2.5 4.4 7.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 10.2 17.4 20.4 220.3 89.4 78.8 2.9 5.1 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 15.1 23.4 19.4 192.4 86.7 77.6 3.9 7.3 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 14.0 26.1 28.3 248.0 92.3 83.8 4.0 6.9 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 14.0 21.0 21.0 176.5 84.6 75.6 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 13 87 100 13.8 23.3 23.0 212.7 89.4 83.5 3.2 6.1 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 10.1 18.8 22.4 248.2 92.1 83.4 2.8 5.0 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 17.5 20.6 20.0 152.7 77.7 70.7 5.5 9.5 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 11.5 16.5 18.8 165.5 82.3 73.0 3.0 5.8 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 13.1 15.2 18.1 137.5 74.6 66.9 3.0 6.4 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 11.4 15.8 19.4 161.3 81.0 72.4 2.8 5.6 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 13.7 19.7 19.8 169.5 82.6 74.5 3.0 6.2 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 13.4 20.0 21.8 168.7 83.0 75.1 3.2 6.4 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 16.1 18.2 17.9 136.7 74.8 67.9 5.7 9.6 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 13.5 29.8 31.7 315.7 94.2 87.5 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 12.3 19.7 21.9 187.3 85.8 77.7 2.7 5.6 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 10.8 19.1 21.1 228.6 90.1 79.2 2.6 4.9 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 11.6 13.0 17.9 132.2 73.5 66.1 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 11.0 16.6 18.7 196.2 86.7 75.7 3.9 6.3 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 15.7 19.5 24.1 156.7 78.4 70.8 4.0 7.7 12.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 14.4 22.0 20.9 190.0 86.5 78.7 3.8 7.0 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 11.5 16.8 19.0 190.0 85.5 74.1 3.1 5.7 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 11.4 15.5 16.7 166.3 82.0 72.6 3.8 6.4 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 13.5 16.0 17.1 140.8 75.9 68.2 4.6 7.9 12.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 11 89 100 14.3 24.7 27.3 233.8 91.9 85.3 4.3 7.2 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 14.1 26.0 24.5 206.6 89.1 81.7 2.5 5.6 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 12.1 22.9 25.9 244.6 92.4 85.7 3.1 5.6 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 12.0 23.6 26.0 252.1 91.6 83.4 2.5 5.1 8.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 18.4 20.8 19.3 136.2 74.1 67.0 4.7 9.3 15.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 10.6 18.6 20.9 227.2 90.4 80.9 3.0 5.3 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------