***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2021.-17.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 6.6 9.2 18.0 175.0 82.4 73.5 1.5 2.9 5.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 7.3 10.0 15.4 171.5 81.6 71.1 1.6 3.3 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 7.3 9.5 16.8 160.4 79.8 70.2 1.6 3.3 5.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 7.8 9.9 18.5 157.3 79.1 70.3 2.5 4.4 6.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 8.9 11.7 18.9 169.8 81.8 73.8 2.0 3.9 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 6.7 8.2 14.7 145.8 76.8 66.6 1.5 3.1 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 6.7 9.3 15.6 175.7 82.2 72.0 1.2 2.7 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 12.2 15.7 17.8 156.0 79.1 69.7 2.7 5.5 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 5.6 6.9 18.4 162.1 80.6 72.8 1.6 2.9 4.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 8.4 10.6 18.2 160.8 80.1 72.7 2.1 4.0 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 7.2 9.4 17.8 162.5 80.6 72.3 1.5 3.1 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 5.8 7.4 16.3 154.4 78.9 69.1 1.4 2.8 4.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 6.7 9.0 17.6 164.6 81.0 71.2 1.7 3.3 5.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 9.0 10.8 17.3 139.5 75.2 67.5 2.5 4.7 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 6.1 7.2 15.2 135.7 74.4 64.9 1.7 3.3 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 7.5 10.0 16.7 157.8 79.6 70.0 1.8 3.6 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 6.6 8.8 14.8 173.3 81.8 71.1 1.7 3.2 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 8.2 10.0 18.3 152.2 78.4 70.8 2.3 4.2 6.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 7.4 10.1 15.6 165.9 80.7 70.3 1.5 3.2 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 8.3 11.2 23.9 163.3 80.8 71.8 2.0 3.9 6.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 6.8 8.4 18.1 161.3 80.3 72.3 2.0 3.5 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 7.7 9.9 14.2 159.9 79.4 68.7 1.7 3.5 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 6.6 9.0 16.6 162.9 80.3 71.2 1.1 2.6 5.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 7.6 8.9 17.3 145.9 77.0 69.0 2.3 4.1 6.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 7.7 10.6 21.1 177.8 82.9 75.7 1.5 3.2 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 4.8 5.6 16.0 152.7 78.6 68.3 1.5 2.6 3.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 7.1 9.9 19.2 175.3 82.4 74.6 1.4 3.1 5.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 6.4 8.0 15.7 144.4 76.4 67.5 1.7 3.3 5.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 12.7 15.4 19.1 149.9 77.9 69.7 3.5 6.5 10.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 6.4 9.0 16.0 169.5 81.3 70.9 1.3 2.8 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------