***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2021.-24.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9.2 9.4 12.6 126.5 71.7 64.3 2.5 4.8 7.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 9.3 10.8 12.2 136.1 74.3 65.0 2.1 4.5 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 8.1 11.6 11.9 118.0 68.9 61.2 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 11.0 15.5 12.9 118.3 69.2 60.7 5.0 8.9 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 11.9 11.8 13.7 120.1 69.6 61.3 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 6.8 8.8 12.2 113.3 67.5 57.0 3.2 5.5 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 8.7 9.8 12.5 142.6 76.0 66.5 2.3 4.3 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 17.6 17.6 15.0 120.7 69.9 60.1 5.6 9.9 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 10.2 9.6 14.0 114.1 67.6 59.9 3.0 5.5 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 11.2 11.1 15.1 118.2 69.0 60.6 4.1 6.8 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 10.4 10.7 13.7 122.3 70.3 61.0 3.6 6.2 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.8 10.7 13.0 118.9 69.2 59.0 3.3 6.0 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 7.4 9.8 13.1 116.2 68.5 58.9 3.6 6.0 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 11.9 16.1 15.2 116.5 68.4 59.8 5.2 9.4 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 9.4 12.4 10.8 108.9 66.8 56.7 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 6.2 8.4 12.7 117.0 68.7 59.1 2.7 4.8 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 8.2 9.7 12.8 145.3 76.6 66.5 2.0 4.0 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 8.2 10.5 15.3 114.2 67.7 59.6 4.2 6.8 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 11.0 12.2 12.1 129.9 72.6 63.9 3.1 6.0 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.7 12.3 18.9 114.6 68.1 58.4 4.7 7.8 11.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 10.8 10.2 12.8 114.2 67.7 60.5 3.2 6.0 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 9.7 11.6 13.2 139.1 75.1 65.0 2.8 5.3 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 10.4 10.5 12.3 122.0 70.3 62.2 2.6 5.3 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 9.5 12.6 13.8 111.9 66.9 58.6 4.1 7.5 12.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 11.7 11.7 13.8 123.1 70.6 63.4 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.6 7.1 12.3 112.8 67.4 56.3 2.4 4.3 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 9.9 10.1 13.4 127.6 71.9 64.6 2.6 5.0 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 6.9 9.6 11.7 114.2 68.2 59.1 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 13.4 17.4 16.1 113.3 67.4 59.1 6.3 10.8 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 9.4 10.5 12.1 131.9 73.2 64.3 2.2 4.6 8.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------