***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2021.-31.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 11.0 12.9 14.8 138.1 74.9 65.3 2.9 5.7 9.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 6.2 10.0 12.3 126.6 72.1 60.1 2.3 4.7 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 15.0 16.4 14.1 131.8 73.3 63.9 3.4 7.2 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 15.1 17.3 16.9 145.8 76.7 65.7 4.4 7.9 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 16.0 18.3 16.6 142.8 76.0 65.7 4.8 8.6 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 14.1 17.7 16.0 153.3 78.4 67.0 4.4 7.8 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 6.5 10.7 12.4 131.2 73.3 60.7 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 12.8 19.3 15.6 128.7 72.4 62.5 6.2 10.6 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 13.2 15.0 17.0 140.8 75.5 66.0 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 14.6 16.5 16.6 133.1 73.5 64.3 4.8 8.5 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 12.9 15.2 15.4 140.5 75.4 64.4 3.8 7.0 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 10.9 12.6 14.2 133.5 73.7 62.6 3.0 5.7 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 13.1 16.7 15.9 146.2 76.8 65.3 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 11.6 18.6 16.6 125.2 71.3 63.0 4.6 9.2 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 11.1 12.8 15.2 138.5 75.1 63.9 2.1 4.7 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 12.3 15.9 15.7 148.5 77.3 65.4 3.2 6.3 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 6.2 9.8 11.8 127.9 72.4 58.4 2.5 4.8 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 9.4 14.2 16.4 125.0 71.2 63.2 4.1 7.5 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 6.8 10.9 12.5 124.7 71.5 60.5 2.6 5.3 9.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 8.3 11.9 19.4 120.6 70.0 60.7 3.8 6.7 10.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 14.0 16.1 16.0 140.1 75.4 66.3 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 6.6 10.3 11.7 122.5 70.9 58.1 2.3 4.9 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 6.7 10.7 13.2 124.0 71.1 61.4 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 12.1 18.1 15.5 126.5 71.7 63.4 5.5 9.8 15.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 15.6 19.3 17.7 147.9 77.2 67.4 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.8 14.0 14.6 138.7 75.0 62.3 4.1 7.0 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 12.5 15.6 16.3 144.2 76.3 66.2 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 12.0 14.1 15.5 145.4 76.6 65.1 2.5 5.4 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 13.2 18.8 16.9 120.3 69.7 61.9 5.9 10.6 16.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 6.8 11.1 12.9 129.1 72.7 61.3 2.4 5.0 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------