***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2021.-31.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 12 88 100 39.4 52.5 68.7 167.3 87.4 83.0 16.2 23.7 32.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 39.4 51.8 60.4 163.3 85.8 80.7 16.4 24.1 33.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 14 86 100 53.9 63.6 62.3 150.4 82.9 78.1 24.2 33.9 45.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 10 90 100 55.5 70.4 76.5 167.7 87.3 82.2 26.9 36.2 46.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 53.9 65.2 70.2 152.5 84.3 78.6 25.7 35.3 45.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 46.1 60.2 66.0 156.4 85.8 79.2 20.1 29.0 39.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 15 85 100 37.2 51.1 62.9 174.2 88.3 83.3 16.1 23.0 31.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 65.6 76.9 68.3 138.9 79.6 72.1 34.3 46.7 60.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 44.2 51.9 68.2 145.0 82.0 76.4 19.2 27.5 37.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 49.5 57.1 67.9 136.4 78.7 72.3 23.8 33.4 44.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 44.0 55.1 66.2 146.7 82.8 75.7 20.1 28.7 39.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 43.9 56.0 63.2 144.4 81.8 74.0 17.2 26.5 38.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 45.8 59.2 68.4 149.5 84.3 76.6 21.6 30.5 40.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 62.0 66.5 67.1 129.4 75.7 71.0 34.5 45.1 57.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 49.7 66.6 72.9 172.9 86.0 80.7 17.5 27.4 39.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 43.6 57.4 67.0 153.3 85.0 78.0 19.1 27.8 37.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 35.5 50.4 60.5 169.0 86.9 81.4 14.5 21.8 30.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 45.5 51.2 67.8 130.3 76.2 70.3 21.5 30.7 41.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 43.8 52.8 58.8 154.0 83.5 78.6 20.1 28.1 37.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 48.7 58.4 86.3 136.8 78.4 71.3 22.1 32.5 44.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 48.3 58.0 67.9 151.2 83.7 79.1 23.1 31.6 41.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 41.2 51.9 58.2 153.2 82.9 77.5 17.6 25.9 35.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 43.3 48.9 58.8 143.6 80.8 76.1 19.6 27.4 36.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 53.3 57.6 63.7 131.1 76.5 71.3 29.5 38.7 49.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 51.6 69.2 80.0 171.0 89.0 84.7 24.7 33.6 43.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 40.8 54.1 67.3 154.0 85.0 77.8 15.9 24.1 34.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 10 90 100 45.2 62.1 74.7 172.5 89.0 84.6 19.3 27.6 37.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 44.5 59.0 69.0 163.5 85.4 79.9 16.1 25.1 36.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 68.1 76.7 71.5 129.0 75.5 69.2 35.3 48.8 64.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 13 87 100 40.9 52.7 62.0 163.7 86.0 81.2 17.2 24.8 33.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------