***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2013.-12.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 9999.0 25.3 22.8 2.4 83.1 81.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 24.7 25.8 22.7 2.4 82.5 80.0 20.8 22.4 23.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 24.7 25.4 22.6 2.2 79.7 77.6 20.9 22.5 24.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 16.9 17.1 19.4 1.4 71.3 69.6 13.9 15.3 16.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 24.4 24.9 20.4 1.7 74.6 72.9 21.1 22.6 24.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 46 54 100 22.4 22.7 17.6 1.3 68.4 66.6 19.5 21.0 22.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 14 86 100 24.3 25.3 22.6 2.4 82.8 80.5 20.5 22.0 23.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 11.6 11.7 18.0 1.3 67.9 66.7 8.6 10.1 11.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 23.9 24.3 21.4 1.8 75.0 73.4 20.4 22.0 23.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 23.5 23.6 19.3 1.5 70.6 69.3 20.4 21.8 23.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 23.6 23.9 19.9 1.6 72.0 70.5 20.5 22.0 23.4 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 22.7 22.9 18.9 1.4 70.1 68.7 19.7 21.2 22.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 24.0 24.5 19.5 1.9 76.0 73.8 20.6 22.1 23.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 24.1 24.5 21.0 1.7 73.9 71.7 20.8 22.3 23.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 24.1 24.3 21.0 1.3 70.6 68.7 21.2 22.5 23.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 24.5 24.8 19.7 1.7 73.4 71.5 21.2 22.7 24.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 23.9 24.9 22.5 2.4 82.9 80.2 20.1 21.6 23.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 23.1 23.1 18.5 1.5 70.1 68.8 19.9 21.4 22.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 24.2 25.2 22.7 2.3 81.9 79.2 20.4 21.9 23.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 18.0 18.2 16.3 1.5 70.4 68.9 15.0 16.5 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 24.3 24.8 22.2 2.0 76.6 74.9 20.7 22.2 23.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 24.4 25.4 22.3 2.2 81.1 78.1 20.7 22.2 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 24.4 25.3 22.5 2.2 80.3 77.6 20.8 22.3 23.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 23.7 23.9 20.6 1.7 72.9 71.2 20.4 21.9 23.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 24.4 25.1 21.3 2.2 80.5 78.7 20.8 22.3 23.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 23.1 23.5 18.4 1.7 73.1 71.0 20.0 21.4 22.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 10 90 100 24.4 25.3 22.3 2.5 84.0 82.0 20.6 22.1 23.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 24.0 24.1 19.9 1.3 68.8 67.0 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 18.0 18.2 17.8 1.6 71.3 69.6 14.9 16.3 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 24.4 25.4 22.8 2.4 82.5 80.1 20.6 22.1 23.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------