***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2013.-26.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 23.9 22.8 -0.1 47.8 50.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 24.3 23.6 22.7 -0.2 47.6 50.7 22.6 23.8 25.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 24.3 23.5 22.8 -0.2 46.7 49.8 22.4 23.8 25.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 17.1 16.0 20.9 -0.4 44.4 47.3 15.0 16.5 17.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 24.5 23.4 20.9 -0.4 44.4 47.3 22.4 23.9 25.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 20.7 22.0 18.6 -0.4 44.3 46.3 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 24.0 23.3 22.6 -0.2 47.7 50.8 22.3 23.5 24.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 12.7 11.5 19.1 -0.5 43.2 45.8 10.7 12.1 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 23.8 22.8 21.3 -0.4 44.3 47.3 21.8 23.2 24.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 23.8 22.7 19.9 -0.5 43.5 46.3 21.9 23.2 24.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 21.8 23.0 20.4 -0.4 45.0 47.4 22.0 23.4 24.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 23.0 22.0 20.0 -0.4 43.7 46.2 21.1 22.4 23.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 22.1 23.1 19.4 -0.5 43.4 45.9 22.3 23.6 24.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 24.2 23.2 21.1 -0.5 43.5 47.4 22.4 23.7 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 24.8 23.9 21.3 -0.3 45.2 47.9 23.0 24.3 25.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 22.4 23.7 20.1 -0.4 44.5 46.9 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 23.7 23.1 22.4 -0.2 47.0 50.2 22.0 23.3 24.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 23.3 22.3 19.2 -0.5 42.7 45.8 21.6 22.8 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 23.9 23.2 22.8 -0.2 47.5 50.6 22.2 23.4 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 18.6 17.5 16.9 -0.5 42.5 45.3 16.7 18.1 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 24.1 23.2 22.2 -0.3 45.7 48.6 22.1 23.5 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 24.2 23.4 22.3 -0.3 45.3 49.1 22.5 23.8 24.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 24.3 23.6 22.6 -0.2 46.8 50.2 22.5 23.8 25.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 23.7 22.7 21.0 -0.5 43.7 47.2 21.9 23.2 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 24.2 23.3 21.2 -0.3 45.3 48.5 22.3 23.6 24.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 21.4 22.4 19.1 -0.5 42.3 44.8 21.7 23.0 24.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 24.0 23.2 21.9 -0.2 46.6 49.7 22.1 23.4 24.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 24.8 23.8 21.0 -0.4 44.7 47.3 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 18.5 17.4 18.2 -0.5 42.6 45.7 16.7 18.0 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 24.2 23.5 22.8 -0.2 47.6 50.7 22.4 23.7 24.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------