***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2013.-02.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 9999.0 24.4 22.9 0.5 61.6 60.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 24.0 24.2 22.7 0.4 59.5 58.8 22.7 23.7 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 24.0 24.2 22.8 0.4 58.7 58.1 22.8 23.7 24.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 16.7 16.5 20.6 0.1 52.2 52.5 15.5 16.3 17.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 24.2 24.0 20.9 0.2 53.8 53.8 22.9 23.8 24.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 22.6 22.3 18.5 0.0 51.2 50.7 21.4 22.2 23.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 23.6 23.9 22.6 0.5 59.9 59.2 22.4 23.3 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 12.0 11.6 18.9 -0.1 48.7 49.2 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 23.5 23.4 21.5 0.2 54.1 54.2 22.3 23.2 24.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 23.4 23.1 19.9 0.0 50.8 51.1 22.3 23.1 23.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 23.7 23.5 20.4 0.1 52.9 52.8 22.5 23.3 24.1 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 22.7 22.4 19.9 0.0 50.4 50.5 21.6 22.4 23.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 23.8 23.6 19.6 0.1 53.0 52.4 22.6 23.5 24.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 23.8 23.6 21.1 0.1 51.4 52.1 22.6 23.5 24.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 24.3 24.1 21.3 0.1 52.9 52.7 23.2 24.0 24.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 24.4 24.2 20.1 0.1 52.7 52.4 23.1 24.0 24.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 23.4 23.5 22.4 0.4 58.0 57.6 22.1 23.1 24.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 23.0 22.6 19.1 0.0 49.5 50.1 21.9 22.7 23.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 23.5 23.7 22.8 0.4 59.3 58.7 22.3 23.2 24.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 18.1 17.7 16.8 -0.1 48.3 48.8 16.9 17.8 18.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 23.8 23.8 22.3 0.3 56.4 56.2 22.6 23.5 24.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 23.9 23.8 22.3 0.2 54.9 55.2 22.6 23.6 24.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 23.9 24.0 22.6 0.4 58.2 57.7 22.7 23.6 24.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 23.3 23.1 21.0 0.1 52.2 52.7 22.2 23.0 23.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 23.9 24.0 21.3 0.4 58.7 58.1 22.6 23.5 24.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 23.2 22.8 19.1 0.0 49.8 49.7 22.0 22.8 23.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 23.6 23.9 22.1 0.5 61.5 60.5 22.4 23.3 24.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 24.2 23.9 20.9 0.0 50.9 51.2 23.1 23.9 24.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 18.0 17.7 18.2 0.0 49.5 50.1 16.8 17.7 18.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 23.8 24.1 22.9 0.5 60.2 59.3 22.5 23.5 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------