***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2013.-09.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 26.0 25.2 0.3 54.4 53.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 23.7 25.7 25.0 0.2 52.9 52.6 24.0 25.4 26.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 26.1 25.6 25.1 0.2 52.7 52.3 23.9 25.4 26.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 16.6 18.1 23.5 0.0 50.0 50.2 16.8 18.1 19.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 26.4 25.8 23.3 -0.1 48.8 49.4 24.5 25.9 27.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 25.0 24.2 20.9 -0.3 45.7 46.9 23.4 24.5 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 25.7 25.3 24.9 0.2 52.8 52.6 23.6 25.1 26.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 14.1 13.3 21.4 -0.3 44.9 46.5 12.5 13.7 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 25.7 25.1 23.6 -0.1 48.9 49.5 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 25.6 24.8 22.2 -0.2 46.7 47.9 23.7 25.1 26.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 26.2 25.6 22.8 -0.1 48.3 49.1 24.4 25.7 27.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 25.0 24.3 22.4 -0.3 45.3 46.7 23.4 24.6 25.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 26.3 25.5 21.7 -0.4 44.4 46.1 24.7 25.9 27.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 25.8 25.1 23.3 -0.1 48.7 49.6 23.7 25.2 26.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 24.6 26.3 24.2 0.2 53.0 52.2 24.9 26.1 27.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 26.8 26.1 22.4 -0.2 46.7 47.9 25.2 26.3 27.5 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 23.2 25.1 24.7 0.1 51.7 51.8 23.4 25.0 26.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 25.0 24.2 21.4 -0.3 45.5 47.1 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 25.6 25.3 25.1 0.2 53.2 52.8 23.5 25.0 26.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 20.7 19.6 19.1 -0.4 43.3 45.4 18.8 20.1 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 25.9 25.4 24.5 0.0 50.6 50.7 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 26.1 25.6 24.7 0.1 51.4 51.6 24.0 25.5 26.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 25.9 25.5 24.9 0.2 52.7 52.6 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 25.4 24.6 23.2 -0.1 48.4 49.4 23.3 24.8 26.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 26.0 25.6 23.6 0.1 51.8 51.4 24.1 25.4 26.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 25.8 24.9 21.5 -0.5 42.5 44.4 24.3 25.4 26.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 25.7 25.5 24.3 0.2 53.4 52.7 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 24.7 26.1 23.7 0.0 49.7 50.0 24.9 26.1 27.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 20.3 19.3 20.4 -0.3 45.1 46.9 18.3 19.7 21.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 25.9 25.6 25.2 0.2 53.5 53.0 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------