***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2013.-09.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 24.5 23.8 0.1 52.7 51.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 24.8 24.4 23.5 0.0 49.4 48.9 23.5 24.5 25.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 24.8 24.3 23.7 -0.1 48.3 48.0 23.5 24.4 25.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 17.4 16.8 21.9 -0.2 45.8 46.1 16.1 17.0 17.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 25.0 24.2 21.9 -0.4 41.8 42.9 23.8 24.7 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 23.4 22.5 19.5 -0.6 37.9 39.5 22.3 23.1 23.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 24.4 24.1 23.4 0.0 49.8 49.4 23.2 24.1 24.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 11.5 11.8 19.9 -0.7 35.1 37.3 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 24.4 23.6 22.4 -0.4 42.1 43.0 23.1 24.0 24.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 22.9 23.3 20.8 -0.5 38.5 40.1 23.0 23.9 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 24.6 23.7 21.4 -0.5 40.0 41.3 23.4 24.3 25.1 29 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 22.3 22.6 20.8 -0.7 35.4 37.5 22.5 23.3 24.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 23.3 23.7 20.3 -0.7 35.0 37.0 23.6 24.4 25.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 24.6 23.8 21.9 -0.4 40.5 42.0 23.4 24.3 25.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 25.1 24.9 22.9 0.1 52.1 51.3 24.0 24.8 25.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 23.9 24.3 21.0 -0.6 38.4 40.0 24.1 24.9 25.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 24.3 23.7 23.1 -0.2 46.0 46.3 22.9 23.9 24.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 23.8 22.8 20.0 -0.6 36.7 38.6 22.6 23.5 24.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 24.3 23.9 23.6 0.0 49.1 48.7 23.1 24.0 24.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 17.7 17.8 17.6 -0.9 32.4 35.0 17.8 18.7 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 24.6 24.0 23.2 -0.2 44.9 45.3 23.3 24.3 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 24.8 24.0 23.0 -0.3 44.1 45.0 23.4 24.4 25.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 24.7 24.2 23.4 -0.1 47.5 47.6 23.5 24.4 25.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 24.1 23.3 21.8 -0.4 40.7 41.9 22.9 23.8 24.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 24.7 24.3 22.3 -0.1 48.7 48.6 23.4 24.3 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 22.8 23.0 19.9 -0.9 32.0 34.3 23.0 23.8 24.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 24.5 24.2 23.0 0.1 51.6 50.9 23.2 24.1 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 25.1 24.6 22.3 -0.2 45.7 46.1 24.0 24.8 25.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.9 17.8 19.0 -0.7 35.3 37.5 17.7 18.6 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 24.6 24.3 23.7 0.0 50.7 50.0 23.4 24.3 25.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------