***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2013.-26.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 17.8 20.2 118.4 69.6 58.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 15.4 16.4 20.0 128.5 72.4 61.3 4.7 8.5 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 17.9 19.0 20.3 128.7 72.4 61.3 6.1 10.4 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 19.4 29.9 25.2 139.5 75.2 62.1 9.6 15.8 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 26.5 29.8 23.8 138.7 75.0 62.3 9.1 15.4 23.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 19.6 21.1 30.1 127.3 71.9 63.7 6.2 11.0 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 15.7 14.7 19.7 119.9 70.0 59.3 4.1 7.7 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 31.3 34.9 24.2 139.6 75.2 64.0 13.0 19.9 28.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 19.8 21.2 22.7 135.8 74.3 62.2 5.5 10.1 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 24.3 26.5 25.3 136.6 74.5 62.9 9.8 15.1 21.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 18.4 20.4 21.3 137.7 74.8 63.3 7.0 11.1 16.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 20.8 24.3 20.5 144.4 76.3 64.5 6.6 11.6 18.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 18.9 20.3 25.1 133.3 73.7 63.5 5.3 9.8 16.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 19.8 24.6 25.4 150.4 77.7 64.3 6.6 11.4 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 14.2 21.7 22.5 131.0 73.0 58.5 6.1 11.0 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 18.3 20.1 23.2 133.7 73.7 63.7 6.1 10.5 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 13.3 14.2 19.3 126.6 71.9 59.1 4.2 7.5 12.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 18.6 21.7 29.1 144.3 76.4 64.2 6.6 10.9 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 18.5 21.3 20.1 135.9 74.3 62.6 5.3 9.9 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 20.0 22.6 31.8 144.2 76.5 65.4 8.0 12.3 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 18.5 19.5 19.9 129.4 72.6 60.6 5.7 10.1 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 10.6 16.7 20.0 135.5 74.2 59.5 4.9 8.6 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 15.1 18.7 21.2 147.3 76.9 64.3 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 19.9 23.8 25.4 143.4 76.2 63.0 6.0 10.8 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 12.4 18.4 24.7 121.9 70.3 60.2 5.0 9.6 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 18.3 19.9 22.4 135.2 74.1 64.2 6.7 10.9 16.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 14.2 19.7 23.4 117.5 69.1 59.3 5.9 11.0 18.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 18.3 20.6 23.3 134.5 74.0 60.8 7.0 11.3 16.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 29.8 35.0 29.4 147.3 77.2 65.2 10.1 17.0 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 17.7 17.8 20.3 126.3 71.8 61.2 4.8 9.0 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------