***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2013.-02.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 14.4 18.0 100.1 63.6 51.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 12.7 16.8 18.8 109.7 66.3 52.8 4.2 9.1 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 15.3 19.0 19.5 110.0 66.7 53.2 7.0 12.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 9.0 20.8 22.3 108.2 65.6 51.2 8.9 14.2 21.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 5.9 14.6 22.1 108.7 65.6 51.7 5.8 9.7 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 16.3 17.5 27.3 99.9 61.3 51.4 9.1 13.7 19.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 11.6 14.4 18.2 105.5 64.9 52.2 3.9 8.3 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 13.0 28.2 23.2 102.9 62.6 50.9 12.7 20.7 30.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 6.2 14.4 21.0 104.5 64.0 50.9 5.9 9.9 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 8.3 17.7 23.4 100.4 61.7 49.7 8.1 13.2 19.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 13.2 15.1 20.1 106.2 64.5 50.9 5.9 10.2 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 7.0 16.8 20.0 109.3 65.6 52.2 6.8 11.3 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 7.3 15.5 23.0 104.5 62.9 50.8 7.0 11.3 16.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 21.8 25.3 22.2 99.2 62.4 50.4 9.5 17.3 28.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 5.3 14.4 18.5 99.7 63.5 49.0 5.0 9.3 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 7.3 16.3 21.8 107.9 64.9 51.7 7.1 11.3 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 12.4 14.2 16.6 100.4 62.7 49.6 4.3 9.0 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 9.2 20.5 25.8 97.9 60.6 49.1 9.2 15.5 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 13.0 17.1 18.7 109.0 66.3 52.6 4.1 9.2 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 9.4 18.7 28.2 97.4 59.5 49.8 9.2 14.8 21.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 6.9 14.8 18.8 105.4 64.8 51.1 6.7 10.5 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 15.3 16.3 16.1 95.0 60.7 48.5 5.0 10.8 19.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 12.8 16.2 18.9 106.9 65.9 52.2 5.3 10.0 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 19.5 21.6 22.5 101.0 62.6 49.8 9.1 15.4 23.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 13.5 15.1 22.1 101.9 63.4 51.3 5.8 10.3 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.4 14.2 19.9 104.3 63.4 52.4 4.9 9.3 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.3 12.6 20.4 98.5 62.4 51.1 4.7 8.7 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 7.5 15.9 20.8 104.9 64.8 50.6 7.4 11.5 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 11.9 23.3 25.5 95.0 59.2 48.4 11.6 18.7 27.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 13.1 17.1 19.3 110.8 66.9 53.7 5.4 10.0 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------