***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2013.-09.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 22.7 11.9 104.2 66.3 52.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 19.8 20.2 10.3 85.6 59.0 47.9 9.4 15.8 24.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 22.2 26.2 11.8 98.5 64.0 52.1 9.9 17.5 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 20.3 22.7 13.4 92.2 62.2 50.8 8.4 15.5 25.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 17.4 19.6 13.9 93.7 62.8 52.0 8.0 13.8 21.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 23.4 21.1 21.2 109.0 67.4 57.6 7.6 13.2 20.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 17.0 18.8 11.2 93.1 62.0 49.7 7.9 13.6 20.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 28.7 33.3 17.8 104.5 65.5 54.7 17.2 24.8 33.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 19.0 21.2 14.0 95.3 63.1 52.2 10.2 15.8 22.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 16.8 18.9 16.8 97.0 63.0 52.8 8.6 13.9 20.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.4 18.6 13.8 99.4 64.8 53.4 6.3 11.8 19.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 14.0 18.2 14.7 105.8 66.7 54.9 5.7 10.7 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 16.0 20.8 17.2 108.4 67.4 56.9 6.9 12.5 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 25.4 27.0 14.3 90.9 61.1 50.8 11.8 20.1 31.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 6.5 16.7 11.3 91.4 62.2 48.9 5.7 11.1 18.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.9 16.1 15.1 103.6 65.9 54.9 4.9 9.6 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 9.8 21.4 9.8 81.1 57.7 44.6 9.4 16.9 27.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 21.4 23.8 19.4 100.0 63.2 53.6 12.4 18.3 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 20.9 21.1 10.1 84.7 58.8 47.7 8.4 15.9 26.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 17.5 21.5 23.0 111.3 66.8 56.1 8.4 13.9 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 17.8 20.9 12.2 97.9 64.1 51.8 7.6 13.7 22.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 9.5 19.2 9.0 74.3 55.0 43.0 9.6 16.6 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 16.5 17.7 10.6 88.4 60.5 48.8 6.9 12.8 21.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 23.4 25.7 15.6 96.1 62.6 52.2 13.6 20.0 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 20.1 24.8 15.0 105.5 66.1 52.8 8.6 15.6 24.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.4 16.2 15.3 109.0 67.6 56.6 4.9 9.2 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 20.6 26.4 14.4 108.2 67.0 53.1 8.3 15.6 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 12.6 14.1 12.8 92.5 62.6 50.9 5.7 9.8 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 23.6 27.1 20.0 103.4 64.3 54.0 12.4 19.4 28.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 20.8 22.8 10.9 92.1 61.5 50.1 11.2 17.4 25.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------